NightWatch

For the Night of 13 July 2008

North Korea- South Korea: North Korea rejected an offer by the South Korean President Lee to resume talks that he suspended in February. The North's state newspaper said President Lee was trying to avoid his personal responsibility for the countries' strained relations.

The North’s rejection provided unintended timely support for Lee because he was criticized for making the offer so close to the death of the South Korean tourist. Now the issue is moot.

North Korea: The Six Party session in Beijing last week reached an agreement for inspecting the nuclear facilities that North Korea described in its nuclear declaration. North Korea’s negotiator promised the Yongbyon site would be disabled by October.

The North did not make a full declaration of all its fissile material-related and nuclear weapons-related facilities. It indicated before hand that it would not. The US “noted” that other facilities exist. Those other facilities are not included in the verification scheme.

India –Pakistan-Afghanistan: Indian National Security Advisor M. K. Narayanan told the press today, "The government not only suspects but has a fair amount of intelligence on the involvement of Pakistan in the attack on our mission in Kabul. Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence needs to be destroyed. India has made this point, whenever it had a chance, to interlocutors across the globe. There might have been some tactical restraint in the past, that restraint no longer exists," he asserted.

Narayanan is the most authoritative spokesman to blame Pakistani intelligence, but he is not a member of the government. As an advisor, his statement will raise tension, but without provoking an official rupture, unless Pakistan chooses to escalate its denials. India appears to be trying to pressure the beleaguered government of Prime Minister Gilani to start managing security issues.

Pakistan: The News ran the following item on 13 July.

“Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader Asif Ali Zardari is going to bring some good news for the nation when he returns to the country soon, a top PPP leader said on Saturday without disclosing what the news could be.

”But the PPP sources in Rawalpindi said in his long stay abroad, Zardari had obtained clearances from the guarantors of the Benazir-Musharraf deal for the impeachment of the president and the restoration of the deposed judges. In his talks in Dubai, Turkey and Europe, Zardari argued that unless these two issues were removed from the national agenda, the economic situation would continue to deteriorate and that would be bad for everybody.”

” ’The PPP co-chairman has told the Abu Dhabi government, the Saudis, the Turks and the Americans that for the survival of his party and the political system in Pakistan, it was necessary to impeach the president and restore the deposed judges,’ said the sources. The sources added that within the PPP, the more important and more discussed issue was the impeachment of Musharraf and not the restoration of the judges.”

A separate report quoted the Minister of Agriculture who said the impeachment of Musharraf has been decided but not the timing. The significance of the travel and the consultations is not at all clear because Zardari has had several false starts since the general elections in February. He already has an electoral mandate to move on the issues.

The weekend news leaks might be part of a scheme to induce Musharraf to leave office on his own, which he said he would do last year, but more recently denied he would do. Musharraf’s latest comments in June imply he is indispensable to the survival of the state. If Zardari is serious about settling these two issues, as he has not been in the past, then the political turmoil will intensify until the issues are brought to closure, but the government malaise might end. Thus far, Zardari has shown no fortitude for political infighting and Musharraf may be relied on to fight hard.

Afghanistan: A Taliban attack on a US outpost in Konar Province in northeastern Afghanistan killed 9 and wounded 15 US and 4 Afghan soldiers. Owing mainly to timely air support, the attackers failed to overrun the outpost, according to al Jazeera, citing Afghan sources.

In the web posting about Operation Ebrat, the Taliban stated that they would try new tactics, including attempts to overrun isolated NATO outposts. In May and June Taliban fighting groups attempted similar attacks in Khost Province to the south but were beaten off with air support.

Without the details, conclusions are foolhardy, but the press accounts support a few observations. What makes this and at least one similar attack in June noteworthy is that the press reporting suggested the Taliban were winning the ground fight and might have overrun the outposts but for timely air support. If that is the case, that would represent a breakthrough in direct attack tactics. It also would signify a change in the role of airpower. Usually air support has ensured and enlarged victory. In this attack, based on the press, its role was to prevent defeat.

There is no doubt that the Taliban sustained heavy losses, but they have no shortage of men and supplies. The Taliban are likely to consider this attack a singular success because of the numbers of losses the Americans sustained. The psychological shield of NATO force invincibility was broken in a direct attack, not by a roadside or suicide bomb.

The Taliban fighters are learning. The attack in Konar was far most lethal than any similar prior attacks in other provinces and the closest to succeeding in overrunning an outpost.

France: For the record. The Conseil d’Etat, France’s highest administrative body which sits as a high court, denied citizenship to a Muslim woman from Morocco because she wears a burqah and lives “in total submission to her male relatives,” according to French social services. The Court ruled that her practice of "radical" Islam is not compatible with French values. Her initial application for citizenship in 2005 also was rejected on the grounds of “insufficient assimilation” into France.

Venezuela: Al Jazeera reported today Thousands of protesters have marched to Venezuela's supreme court to protest against the disqualification of 272 people hoping to stand in upcoming regional elections on Saturday. The opposition supporters waved flags and chanted "freedom" on Saturday as they urged judges to throw out the blacklist compiled a senior anti-corruption official.

Clodosbaldo Russian, the comptroller general and a close ally of President Chavez said that the potential candidates on the list were suspected of corruption and other administrative crimes. The opposition countered that the constitution only disqualifies a citizen if they have been charged with a crime and sentenced.

More than one dozen members of the 1999 assembly that drafted the current constitution, including Chavez's ex-wife Marisabel Rodriguez, have accused Russian of violating the law. The comptroller general is "illegally excluding those who don't share the president's socialist agenda," she said during Saturday's march.

Chavez said that the protesters "should be ashamed of themselves'' for defending candidates suspected of corruption.

Opinion polls indicate the opposition - which currently controls two states - could take about 10 of the 23 state governor posts up for election in November, according to the al Jazeera report. This is a study in democracy.

End of NightWatch for 13 July.