NightWatch

For the Night of 10 July 2008

North Korea: The Six Party Talks resumed today in Beijing. The agenda focused on the process of verification of the North Korean declaration of its nuclear facilities, according to South Korean press reports. The North complained that the other nations are delinquent in keeping their promises of aid and a million tons of heavy fuel oil.

Talks in Panmunjom also took place today. North Korea and the UN Command traded complaints about violations of the armistice. The North made its customary protest after receiving formal notification of US-ROK exercise Ulchi-Freedom Guardian, the new name for the annual exercise known as Ulchi-Focus Lens. Korean Central Television broadcast, "The U.S. military notified us of its plan to wage the UFG joint military exercise... Our side strongly demanded that the U.S. military immediately cancel it, denouncing it as a criminal act that will increase tension on the Korean Peninsula."

During today’s meeting North Korea demanded that the United States “stop provocations” in Panmunjom. The Korean Central News Agency reported that a representative of the mission of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) in Panmunjom, Senior Colonel Kwak Yong-hun, made “a resolute protest” in connection with actions of the United States, “hampering soldiers of the DPRK border guard to fulfill their duties in the negotiating huts” on the border. The local press doesn’t specify what kind “provocations” the American side made.

The UN complained that North Korean guards were making intimidating gestures towards South Korean and US visitors in the Joint Security Area where the meetings are held. The North Koreans admitted some of their actions were inappropriate, but said South Korean guards were showing hostility against them.

The revised exercise will run from 18 to 22 August. Most of the drill will be computerized, according to South Korea’s Chosunilbo. The North’s denunciation is standard fare. After five decades, the level of discourse at Armistice meetings has hardly changed at all. The North probably agreed to an Armistice Commission meeting on the day of the Six Party Talks to show the world its willingness to negotiate is not a sign of weakness … a standard and much-used theme in North Korean propaganda.

India-Pakistan: Indian and Pakistani forces exchanged fire briefly today across the Line of Control in Kashmir. This is the second such exchange in less than a month. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations Director General Major General Athar Abbas told the Daily Times, “Indian troops used small arms and mortars but none of the Pakistani soldiers was inured.” He said Pakistani troops returned fire and also protested the unprovoked shelling by the Indian Army.

Abbas said that the local Pakistani commander contacted his Indian counterpart to call a halt to the firing and request a flag meeting. “Pakistan is demanding an immediate meeting at the level of Directors General Military Operations (roughly comparable to the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans, G3, in the US Army.),” Abbas said. He also blamed India for violating the ceasefire on 19 June in the same sector by firing at Pakistani soldiers, killing four. He said the Foreign Office would issue a formal protest with the Indian government over the incident.

Indian Army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel S.D. Goswami denied Pakistan’s statement and countered that Pakistan-based militants trying to infiltrate Jammu and Kashmir State had opened fire on the Indian forces.

In 2003 India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire along the Line of Control, after over a year of high tension that nearly led to general war twice in 2002. Both nations have adhered to the ceasefire until these latest incidents which roughly coincide with an increase in security incidents in Jammu and Kashmir State. That can only occur with assistance from entities in Pakistan.

The concern is that the stable conditions along the Line of Control during the past five years are beginning to break down, ostensibly because of the political disarray in Islamabad. The two recent incidents are similar to infiltration tactics used often before the 2003 ceasefire. Infiltrators into Kashmir would sometimes receive cover from small arms, mortar and occasionally artillery fire by military or paramilitary units stationed along the Pakistan side of the Line of Control. Another tactic was to provoke the Indian or the Pakistani forces into an escalating exchange of fire along the Line to facilitate their infiltration.

Some entity or entities in Pakistan appear to be deliberately increasing the stress on the elected Pakistani government. One objective could be to force new elections and installation of a law and order government. A more benign assessment is that the government’s lack of focus is encouraging groups with grudges to exploit the lax security policy. There are other more and less sinister interpretations but the two above are supported by evidence in the public domain and both appear to be at work. Unindentified forces are profiting by and from increasing instability in Pakistan and with its neighbors on both borders.

Pakistan: Following yesterday’s negotiated settlement of the siege of a police station in Hanggu District, security forces imposed a curfew and began security sweeps. Taliban spokesman Maulvi Omar said one of the terms for ending the siege of the 35 policemen was the government’s promise to not follow up with a security crackdown. Thus he announced that in retaliation against the government’s “mistake” of deploying the army in the Hanggu region, “We have kidnapped 22 security officials, including police, Frontier Constabulary and army officials. We will not stop our actions until this injustice ends.”

Afghanistan-India: Update. Officials in India denied yesterday’s news reports that Taliban militants had staged a deadly attack at the Indian consulate in Jalalabad. Indian intelligence sources said an attack had been threatened, but no incident occurred. Pakistani news reported six people, including two Indian nationals, were killed.

Iraq: Asharq al-Awsat reported today that Iraq wants U.S. forces in its territory to be placed under the Iraqi government's control as part of Baghdad's ongoing security negotiations with the United States, according to Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdel-Mahdi. Iraq wants to strip U.S. forces of their sovereign rights and effectively unlimited powers in Iraq and make them susceptible to criminal prosecution if they commit crimes, Abdel-Mahdi said.

Vice President Abdel-Mahdi is the second Iraqi official to escalate demands for increased control over foreign troops. On Wednesday, Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Khald Al-Attiya told Press TV the Parliament rejects a Baghdad-Washington security pact, should it grant immunity to the US troops.

If the news reports are accurate, some Iraqis would seem to be suggesting terms that they know will be rejected by the US. The Soviets often engaged in this practice regularly when they wanted an excuse to abandon a negotiation or when they wanted a better offer.

Gaza Strip-Hamas: Hamas authorities detained three members of a rival militant group for firing two rockets into Israel yesterday from the Gaza Strip. A spokesman for the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades confirmed the detentions.

The al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades called for the release of its members. The detentions are the first since Hamas, which controls Gaza, agreed a ceasefire with Israel last month aimed at easing an Israeli blockade.

Russia-Georgia-South Ossetia: Georgia announced that effective 10 July it had recalled its ambassador from Moscow after Russian authorities admitted Russian fighter jets flew over South Ossetia on 8 July without obtaining Georgia’s permission. The Georgian government accused the Russians of committing a "very grave act of aggression.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry said it had ordered the flights because Russian leaders believed the Georgian government was preparing to attack South Ossetia, which has de facto seceded from Georgia. The Foreign Ministry statement said “The need arose to take urgent and active measures to prevent bloodshed and keep the situation within peaceful bounds….To clarify the situation, aircraft of the Russian air force carried out a brief flight over the territory of South Ossetia….As subsequent events showed, this step allowed [us] to cool hot heads in Tbilisi and prevent events developing along military lines."

Over flights have been reported previously by the Georgian government, but this is the first time Russia has admitted ordering over flights by combat aircraft as a show of force. The Russians used their air superiority to demonstrate their resolve to support the status quo. This means they are prepared to provide combat air support to the pro-Russian secessionists if the Georgian government attempts to use force against South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The action also sends the message that Georgia could become a dangerous flash point, if NATO ever considers Georgia for membership. The Russians could hold it a virtual hostage, as they did West Berlin. They could do the same for the NATO Baltic states.

Zimbabwe: Representatives from President Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party and from opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change met in South Africa today. Tsvangirai characterized the meeting as “talks about talks.” His group presented five conditions for it to enter a national unity government.

Tsvangirai has little leverage in the negotiations except the rhetorical encouragement of western leaders. Mugabe is going through the motions to prevent more sanctions, such as freezing personal bank accounts of government and military leaders deposited in institutions outside Zimbabwe.

Venezuela: Bloomberg reported yesterday that President Chavez will discuss purchasing more military equipment, including tanks, during his 22 July visit to Moscow. Other items on the shopping list include modern air defense systems and digital intelligence systems, Chavez said in comments broadcast on state television.

Venezuela spent over $4 billion on weapons purchases between 2005 and 2007, according to the International Herald Tribune. Most of it was spent on Su-30 fighters, helicopters, assault rifles and submarines purchased from Russia. This is reminiscent of Cuba during the Cold War, except Venezuela is a paying customer.

End of NightWatch for 10 July.