NightWatch

For the Night of 8 July 2008

Thailand: The corruption trial of former Prime Minister Thaksin and his wife began today in Bangkok. They face charges related to a Bangkok real estate deal during Thaksin’s tenure as Prime Minister, before September 2006.

The Thaksins deny any wrongdoing and contend the charges of abuse of power against them are politically motivated.

Thaksin, a billionaire who owns the English football club Manchester City, returned to Thailand in February after 18 months abroad to defend himself in this trial and to stage a political comeback. Those prospects dimmed significantly when three of his lawyers were jailed last month by the Supreme Court for offering a cash bribe in a cake box, our correspondent adds

The political future of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), the successor to Thaksin’s political organization, also is in some jeopardy. The Supreme Court banned former House Speaker Yongyut Tiyapairat, of the PPP from politics for five years after finding him guilty of vote-buying in 2007. The BBC noted that under Thai election law, the verdict against Yongyut, empowers the Election Commission to expand its investigation into voter fraud. Depending on the findings, the PPP could be ordered disbanded.

This appears to be another chapter in the political backlash by the monarchists and the traditional elite power brokers against Thaksin and his rural populist following.

India: The Communist parties who were members of the Congress Party-led ruling coalition timed their withdrawal from the government to the G8 summit in Japan where Prime Minister Singh is meeting President Bush. The Communists bolted today 8 after Prime Minister Singh said the government would continue to pursue a controversial civilian nuclear contract with the United States despite the communists’ opposition.

Singh’s coalition, known as the UPA, is not really in jeopardy. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that the UPA government still had the support of 275 MPs in a House of 543 — three more than a simple majority of 272. He said there also was a pool of nearly 90 Members of Parliament who would support Congress or who might be persuaded to do so. He said Congress would need only seven to eight votes to prove its majority. Congress Party politicians were busy today making new alliances with several small parties to offset the loss of support and avoid early elections.

India's parliament will convene a session beginning 11 August to consider a vote of no confidence, according to Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee.

The Communists are reflexively opposed to any arrangements that improve Indian ties with the US or extend US influence. Today’s withdrawal appears to signify that the Communists recognize that their long rear guard action to block the nuclear deal while remaining in the ruling coalition has finally failed.

The nuclear agreement will pass after the government survives the vote of confidence, but it might cost Prime Minister Singh his position. Inflation is at an all time high and living conditions have declined under Singh. If he is replaced, these will be the reasons, not the nuclear agreement which will afford India access to modern US nuclear power generating technology.

Pakistan: Security. The government followed up yesterday’s high alert security condition with an announcement today that three suicide bombers have entered the federal capital while security. In addition, authorities further tightened security in Punjab Province after receiving reports that explosive-filled vehicles/car bombs were present in the province, according to private television news reports.

ARY One quoted an intelligence agency report as saying that the suicide bombers might target important political and religious personalities. The Interior Ministry has banned rallies and processions near sensitive places in Islamabad. According to the report, the would-be suicide bombers have been identified by name as members of a militant Islamic group from Parachinar in the Kurram Agency, North West Frontier Province. The report says that Pakistani Taliban have formed suicide squads to be sent to Lahore and Karachi as well as Islamabad.

In Bajaur Agency, local Taliban took possession of two girls’ primary public schools in on sub-district and announced they were converting them into madrassas.

The Pakistani media coverage of security in North West Frontier Province indicates extensive tribal unrest. This is a somewhat counter-intuitive development in that the elected government is more conciliatory towards the tribes than was Musharraf, except for those that pandered. The details in the public information domain are not sufficient to gauge the extent of the tribal unrest with precision.

What is clear is that starting about mid-July the tribal fighters and extremists have surged operations in Pakistan and in Afghanistan. Unidentified entities are encouraging, supporting and financing this increased activity. The two usual sources of that kind of support are foreign financiers based in the Persian Gulf states and Pakistani intelligence. No other entity has the cash. The data suggests some entity is trying to bring down the elected government by creating a chaotic security situation.

In Karachi, officers investigating the 7 July 7 bombs in the Pashtun residential areas today claimed “a foreign intelligence agency” was behind the incident. This is the customary language Pakistan uses to refer to India’s Research and Analysis Wing. According to the local press, the criminal investigation department has found clues pointing to foreign involvement – not further specified. According to unidentified Pakistani intelligence sources, the blasts were aimed at fanning ethnic hatred between two groups residing in the interface areas of the city.

Afghanistan-India: Today Indian road workers found a remote-controlled bomb on a bus in which they were traveling on their way to work in the Khashrod area of Afghanistan's southwestern province of Nimroz, Agence France-Presse reported. The bomb was discovered before it detonated. Provincial Governor Ghulam Dastagir Azad reportedly blamed Taliban militants for the attempted attack. The driver of the bus was detained for questioning.

Correction: Yesterday, NightWatch misnamed the Indian road construction organization. The following is an excerpt on this organization from Wikipedia. “The Border Roads Organization, also known as BRO, is a unique combination of officers from the corps of engineers of the Indian Army and officers … from the General Reserve Engineer Force (GREF). Their mission is to maintain roads that serve the borders areas. The BRO contributes to the army's other duties and supplies units that are part of the defense forces.” This organization repairs the border roads and reinforces the bridges for Indian tanks before they cross into Pakistan, for example.

The Indian Army component of this unique organization is the basis for Pakistan’s consistent complaint that India has military forces in Afghanistan. In June, BRO units sustained seven Taliban attacks that killed 13 Indians. Taliban attacked BRO twice in early May and once in April. Curiously, a BRO unit in Kashmir experienced its first attack since 1999 on 13 June. Senior Indian Army officials described the attack as based on the example of Taliban attacks on the BRO in Afghanistan.

About 300 BRO men are protected by 400 Indo-Tibetan Border Police. The outer security perimeter is supposed to be manned by 1,400 Afghan gunmen paid to be guards. In all, about 4,000 Indian nationals are working on infrastructure development projects in Afghanistan, valued at $850 million and one of India’s largest aid programs.

Afghanistan-Pakistan: In June, a new category of security event established itself in the data for the first time: attacks and attempted attacks by Pakistani Taliban. NightWatch has compiled open source reports describing 12 security incidents all dating after 22 June. In one incident, 55 of a group of “hundreds” of Pakistani fighters were killed by NATO air support after they were detected crossing the border from Pakistan.

On several occasions Afghan police arrested would-be suicide bombers on the road from Quetta to Kandahar near Spin Boldak, the border crossing point. Under interrogation, the Pakistani youths identified the names of the mullahs who had trained them; the name and location of the madrassas in Pakistan where they were trained; the names of the mullahs who were their contacts in their target destinations in Afghanistan; and the medicine they were directed to take before committing suicide. One captured suicider said he had been sent by Baitullah Mehsud of South Waziristan to attack NATO forces.

In May, only two Pakistanis were detected infiltrating. Some of the madrassas in Pakistan and some of the tribes have joined the war against the forces of order in Afghanistan.

Iran: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards successfully test-fired a Shahab-3 missile on 9 July, whose range puts it within reach of Israel, the state media broadcast. The missile, said to have a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles), was one of nine fired from an undisclosed desert site. Two other types of missile with shorter ranges were also fired as part of the Great Prophet III war games.

This is the Iranian version of the North Korean No Dong. Curious that this event occurred the day after President Ahmadi-nejad announced the risk of war with the US and Israel was low. The No Dong can be well made, but its guidance system is quirky. A Pakistani No Dong, called the Ghauri, which was launched from northeastern Pakistan, cork-screwed out of control and landed in southern Afghanistan once, instead of down range inside Pakistan.

Iraq: National Security Adviser Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, speaking in Najaf after a meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, told the press today, "We will not accept any memorandum of understanding if it does not give a specific date for a complete withdrawal of foreign troops….Our stance in the negotiations under way with the American side will be strong," he said, but added that it was proving "very difficult" to set a pullout date.

The significance of al-Rubaie’s statement lies in the venue. The message behind the message is that Sistani is reasserting himself in the cause of Iraqi sovereignty and the timetable for withdrawal. In the context of Prime Minister al Maliki’s statement in the UAE yesterday, it appears that Maliki has obtained the backing/direction of Grand Ayatollah al- Sistani for his stance on this issue. Sistani does not endorse any political party, but has dispensed advice about specific issues. Both al Malilki and al Rubaie may be understood as speaking on behalf of Sistani.

Sistani is the leader of the quietist school of Shii Islam which is based in Najaf, Iraq, and which is distinguished from the activist school based in Iran. The quietists devote their lives to moral guidance and the study of Islam and avoid involvement in public, political activities. Since 2003, however, Sistani has occasionally assisted faltering governments in Baghdad by permitting audiences and dispensing advice to officials and the faithful, always through intermediaries. Last summer, Sistani’s spokesman announced the Grand Ayatollah was withdrawing from his limited activism because of the slaughter of Muslims by Muslims at that time, which he denounced twice and called for it to end.

He has permitted no audiences with Americans, but his tacit acceptance of American intervention to overthrow Saddam Hussein is responsible for the Shiites’ general cooperation, instead of resistance. He is arguably the foremost opinion shaper in Iraq, for Sunnis and Shiites. His support for an end date for withdrawal means one will be crafted or there will be Shiite resistance.

Saudi Arabia-Iraq: For the record. Interior Minster Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz announced that Saudi Arabia is nearing completion on an agreement to build a border wall between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Asharq Al-Awsat reported. Saudi Arabia has joined the ranks of other countries, including India and Pakistan, which recognize that walls work.

Israel-Egypt-Palestine: Defense Minister Ehud Barak agreed to Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman's request for Israel to reopen border crossings to the Gaza Strip, The Associated Press reported, citing unnamed Israeli defense officials. Suleiman made the request after Israel closed the crossings on 8 July in response to a Palestinian attack. Israel was expected to reopen the crossings later on the 8^th.

Russia-US-Czech Republic: In a Foreign Ministry statement today, Russia announced, "If a US strategic anti-missile shield starts to be deployed near our borders, we will be forced to react not in a diplomatic fashion but with military-technical means." The statement was an official reaction to the signature of a preliminary agreement between the US and the Czech Republic to build the radar site in the Czech Republic.

The Russian statement did not explain “military-technical means,” but it customarily means application of technology. For example, earlier this year Russia threatened to re-target its strategic missiles against Poland or the Czech Republic if they accepted the missile defense system.

The Russians probably are aware that polls show that 70% of the Czech people see no need for or benefit from the system. The Opposition is accusing the government of ignoring the popular mandate and has called for a referendum on this issue. It also intends to defeat it in parliament, threatening to bring down the government because of today’s signing event. As the BBC coverage noted, “the Russians are trying to frighten the Czech parliament into backing out of the whole deal.” That does not mean the Russians will hesitate to re-target their missiles.

As for Lithuania as a fall back position, the government leaders say they are willing, but Lithuania has a large and loud Russian minority and limited ability to withstand Russian pressure, unless NATO is prepared to station more than a handful of air defense aircraft there and risk an escalatory spiral. A NATO showdown with Russia over Lithuania only serves Russian interests, which include pulling the Baltic States out of NATO.

Niger-China: The government in Niamey has signed an agreement with China to help improve the country's power supplies. China has agreed to transfer several electrical power units to Niger in return for uranium and oil exploration rights. Nigerien officials hope to increase domestic power production by 30% in the capital region, according to the head of Niamey’s power plant.

Niger produces about 234 million Kwh of electricity, but consumes 437.7 million KwH, according to the CIA Fact Book. The shortfall is purchased and imported from Nigeria, which is experiencing its own power problems.

Niger is one of the world’s poorest countries with a per capita GDP of $700 for its 13 million people. However it is judged to possess the world’s largest uranium deposits. China continues to buy up African resources cheaply. The power units are used.

Ecuador: Today authorities took control of two private broadcasting stations. The official reason is the stations filed fraudulent tax returns. Unofficially, a top company officer was told by his government replacement that they have been too critical of President Correa. This is a study in democracy.

End of NightWatch for 8 July.