NightWatch

For the Night of 3 July 2008

China-Taiwan: A study in contrasts.

Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling Kuomintang (Nationalist) party told a graduating class of military cadets on 2 July Taiwan will never seek a war with China, but will defend itself if China should ever attack, according to media reports. Ma's comments were said in reaction to a report that China built a new ballistic missile base on its southeastern coast and upgraded missiles along the Taiwan Strait with new versions that could hit Taiwan's air force bases.

This is boiler plate language for a Taiwan President, but it spotlights Chinese national security practice. Diplomatic overtures come and go; relations cool and thaw. The hard purpose of building missiles and capabilities to conquer Taiwan does not stop.

China has the capability to salvo fire at least 140 missiles at a time in 10 salvos from its array of ballistic missile sites in range of Taiwan, according to the Taiwan government quoted by the Christian Science Monitor. In good times and bad, China has continued to improve and expand the capability to use missiles to saturate and overwhelm Taiwan’s defenses. The targets would include critical civil infrastructures as well as military bases.

President Ma’s statement was made two days before the first regular direct air passenger flight from mainland China to Taiwan for nearly 60 years landed at Taipei's airport. Since the civil war in 1949, travelers have had to fly via a third destination - apart from a few special flights during major holidays. The 4 July flight from Guangzhou marks the beginning of regular non-stop direct flights on weekends between a number of cities. This was arranged during a visit by top Kuomintang leaders to Beijing in May.

For now this is the leading edge of Chinese interaction with Taiwan, but it is not the hard edge. Neither side permits the flights to cross the Taiwan Strait directly, but insist on circuitous over water routes for security reasons.

Mongolia: The government withdrew its soldiers from the streets of the capital, Ulaan Baatar (Ulan Bator), and replaced them with police, Justice Minister Tsend Munkh-Orgil told reporters on 3 July. The soldiers had been deployed to stop political riots that killed five people. Munkh-Orgil called the situation stable and said the danger of violence has receded.

The Election Commission has not announced the final results of last Sunday’s general elections.

Indonesia: Authorities arrested nine suspected members of the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) terrorist group in a series of raids in south Sumatra Province between June 28 and July 1, Antara news agency reported on 3 July. The raids reportedly also uncovered 20 assembled bombs, 16 of which were ready to detonate, several hand grenades and dozens of pounds of explosives. Indonesian anti-terrorism officials as saying the men had planned to target Westerners in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta.

JI is considered responsible for the deadly Bali suicide bombings in October 2005 that killed 20 people and injured 129. This is tonight’s good news.

India: Today the Kashmir land controversy spread outside Kashmir. Hindus held strikes in several Indian states. They disrupted transportation and prompted a curfew in Indore where two people were killed when Hindus and Muslims clashed and police fired tear gas shells to stop the fighting, Reuters reported.

In Hyderabad 100 protesters were arrested. In Mumbai protestors blocked transportation systems.

Despite a politically motivated call by the Hindu nationalist BJP party, Hindus in Gujarat state refused to join the protest. In 2002, 1,000 people died in Hindu-Muslim communal riots in Gujarat. That is what the government is hoping to prevent.

In military affairs, Chief of the Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor said today that India should be aware of the likely implications of China's military modernization, the Press Trust of India reported.

Kapoor said India should pay attention to the rapid modernization of China's military, infrastructure improvements in the Tibet Autonomous Region and "other related issues, which could impact our security in the long run." Kapoor said China and India have differences on their border which special representatives from both governments are working to resolve, and that economic involvement and continued efforts to resolve the issue have ensured calm on the border.

Kapoor was delivering “The National Security Lecture” to the Indian Institute for Defense and Security Analyses. Indian leaders seldom suggest China is a threat in public, but Chinese influence in Sri Lanka, Burma and Pakistan are a constant worry to Indian strategists.

Kapoor used what is now a familiar formula: raise awareness without raising alarm and end with reassurance that conditions are quiet for now. Nevertheless, India’s long term military acquisition plans include nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines, long range bombers, replacement aircraft carriers and intercontinental ballistic missiles, all of whose capabilities would be appropriate for a future fight with China, but far exceed anything needed in a fight with Pakistan.

Pakistan: The backlash.

1. The Associated Press: Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on 3 July rebuffed U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher's comments that Pakistan should focus on food costs and militant issues, not the fate of President Pervez Musharraf. Sharif said what Pakistan does about its "unconstitutional president" is an internal affair, and that the country does not need outside consultation on the matter.

2. The News: “Pakistan on Thursday reacting strongly to the statement of US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen regarding right to attack Pakistan said nobody has the right to take action inside Pakistan in the war against terrorism.”

“Pakistan has once again clarified that on the Pakistan side of the border along Afghanistan it is the Pakistani troops who have the sole responsibility to take action against the terrorists,” said Foreign Office Spokesman Muhammad Sadiq in his weekly briefing.”

”The US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen said on Wednesday that the United States had the right to take military action in Pakistan if it got reliable and concrete intelligence about the presence of top leadership of Taliban and al-Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden.”

Politics. The Bhutto clan in Sindh Province is rebelling against Bhutto’s husband, Asif Zardari who is not a Bhutto. The Bhuttos claim Zardari has stolen their legacy, their icon and more importantly their wealth. (All of which is consistent with Zardari’s past.) Sassi Bhutto, Benazir’s niece, is returning from London to lead the movement.

As one source put it, “Sassi Bhutto is on a mission here in Pakistan – to get the politics, wealth, and property’s possession back from the Zardaris. Fatima Bhutto (a niece who denounced Benazir as a criminal repeatedly) has taken the initiative to bring Sassi back and she had herself traveled to London for the purpose to unite the real Bhuttos.”

The News sources indicated the old line stalwarts of the Pakistan Peoples Party are uniting behind the “real Bhuttos” and that this risks a schism in the government party.

Turkey: Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Cicek on 3 July told the nation's Constitutional Court that an indictment charging the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party with undermining Turkey's secular principles is "fictional" and should be tossed out, Bloomberg reported. The argument, which Cicek delivered at a court hearing closed to the public, is outlined in a 99-page brief the AK Party filed in its defense.

Israel-Gaza: A rocket from the Gaza Strip has landed in southern Israel, the Israeli army says, putting more strain on a fragile truce with Gaza's Hamas rulers. The Israeli military said the rocket landed in an open field near the town of Sderot without causing casualties.

It is the sixth reported rocket strike since the ceasefire took effect on 19 June.

Venezuela: Today the Venezuelan government called on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia to release the remaining hostages after the July 2 rescue of 15 hostages, Reuters reported.

Mainstream international news services reported that Venezuelan TV stations ran clips of the successful rescue, but reported no other official reaction. The Colombian success tends to undermine any opportunity or need for Venezuelan President Chavez to mediate with the FARC, depriving him of a cameo role in which to try to act as a regional peacemaker.

Note: The Interpol web site contains a summary of Interpol’s forensic examination of the computers and their files that Colombian forces found in Ecuador in March. These contained thousands of files and emails tending to prove that Ecuador and Venezuelan leaders provided a range of support to the FARC. Interpol found that the files had not been tampered with by any one since their seizure at a FARC camp in Ecuador last March, contradicting charges by President’s Chavez and Correa. The Interpol findings were covered by one American newspaper, the Kansas City Star on 15 May.

End of NightWatch for 3 July