NightWatch

For the Night of 23 June 2008

North Korea: For the record. The overdue nuclear declaration is to be submitted on Thursday, 26 June, according to South Korean and Japanese media sources. The cooling tower at Yongbyon will be demolished on Friday, as a photo opportunity for press representatives from the Six-Party participants.

Thailand: Security. The State Railway of Thailand canceled train services to Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces in southern Thailand after insurgents in military fatigues attacked a train in Yala on 21 June, killing four people, the International Herald Tribune reported. The insurgents reportedly boarded the train and shot at railway employees, including police.

Trains from Bangkok to the southern provinces will now terminate at Songkhla's Hat Yai District, 50 miles north of the southern provinces. Service will be suspended until authorities improve security.

Several suspensions occurred last year also because of security problems. The insurgents occasionally get emboldened to attack trains, but that usually produces a local backlash because of the difficulty of travel and a security crackdown. The transportation difficulties are particularly burdensome now because of the cost of fuel. Minivan and bus companies have already raised prices for travel to Hat Yai, to cover fuel costs and take advantage of the windfall profits, according to Thai press services.

The insurgents often seem to make life worse for the people for whom they are fighting and on whom they rely for support.

Politics. Prime Minister Samak will defend his government’s four month record in a debate today over a no-confidence motion by the opposition. The vote will be taken on 26 June but Samak’s majority is more than sufficient to ensure his government does not fall.

India-Russia: For the record. Chief of Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor left today on a five-day visit to Russia aimed at strengthening military ties, RIA Novosti reported, citing the Indian Defense Ministry. Kapoor will visit a Russian armored division with T-90 main battle tanks, a St. Petersburg artillery academy and the North Caucasus military district. This is his first visit to Russia since his appointment as Chief of Army Staff last September.

Pakistan: Security. Reuters related police reports that militant followers of Pakistani Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud took control of Jandola, a town at the entrance to South Waziristan Agency, which Baitullah dominates. Four tribesmen and two militants died while fighting for control of the town, and the militants took seven tribesman hostage, the local police chief said. A Taliban spokesman said nine people had died, seven of them tribesmen, and that the Taliban had captured 10 pro-government tribesmen.

Suspected Pakistani Taliban militants are believed to hold hostage 17 tribal police officers from four “checkposts” on the road through the Khyber Pass to Afghanistan, Reuters reported today. The men were taken after a brief exchange of gunfire yesterday. Police said the attackers are likely "outsiders" from the Mohmand Agency, not Khyber. No group has claimed responsibility for the kidnappings, and no ransom demand has been received. The road from Peshawar to Kabul remains under hostile control in the vicinity of the border.

Politics. The Punjab Provincial High Court in Lahore ruled the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is ineligible to run in by-elections for the National Assembly, GEO News reported. However, the court ruled that Nawaz’ brother Shahbaz Sharif could continue to serve as Chief Minister of Punjab Province, though the brothers were both convicted of crimes at the same time in 1999 that forced them into exile in Saudi Arabia.

After the ruling was announced, PML-N supporters gathered outside the court and chanted slogans against the government. "It is a political decision and we reject it. It is a conspiracy against democracy," Siddiqul Farooq, a spokesman for Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N party told Agence-France Presse. The judges who gave the ruling were appointed by President Pervez Musharraf after he sacked dozens of judges under emergency rule. “

“They are implementing Musharraf's agenda," senior PML-N leader Ahsan Iqbal told private Geo television.

"We will not go before the supreme court in appeal, because we do not accept it as a valid court because the judges there have taken oath of allegiance to Musharraf and not the constitution," Iqbal said.

The Lahore High Court upheld Sharif’s disqualification based on a 1999 criminal conviction, although the Pakistan Election Commission cleared him and his brother to stand for office. The 1999 conviction was an artifice to justify sending the Sharif’s into exile after Musharraf overthrew Nawaz who was the Prime Minister of Pakistan.

After the Election Commission reinstated the Sharif’s last month, pro-Musharraf entities filed complaints with the Court to thwart the Sharifs plans to run for office. The case was filed before the PML-N won control of the Punjab provincial assembly. The court referred the complaint against Shahbaz to the Election Commission which already cleared him.

The Lahore High Court judges who ruled against Sharif are among those appointed by Musharraf on 3 November. Thus they have a conflict of interest in that they have a personal and pecuniary interest in the outcome of the case against Sharif. Once he returns to the National Assembly, they are almost certain to lose their appointments because he will ensure that the original High Court is restored and these men given other jobs.

Until they are removed, this ruling would seem to block Nawaz’ plan to run for a National Assembly seat on 26 June. He might just ignore it on the grounds the Election Commission has already qualified him and the court overreached. His brother, as Chief Minister, might suspend the court. PML-N might run a proxy who would find a reason to resign in favor of Nawaz after this is settled.

Just when it appeared that the coalition partners had reached a workable compromise, this judgment will threaten to break it by adding urgency to Sharif’s effort to have declared unconstitutional the 3 November emergency rule and the actions Musharraf took to stay in office. Now the PML-N has a powerful incentive to disregard the Pakistan People’s Party parliamentary strategy.

Everyone in the PML-N and the Bar will consider this a politicized ruling, especially the timing days before the by elections. It is likely to lead to more political instability. Pakistan will remain directionless until the issues of the judges and the impeachment of Musharraf are settled, probably this summer.

Lebanon: Exchanges of gunfire continued today near Tripoli between anti-Syrian and pro-Syrian militias, according to the New York Times report. The Lebanese Army is trying to arrange a ceasefire.

Zimbabwe: Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has taken refuge in the Dutch Embassy in Harare, Reuters reported because he fears for his safety. A Dutch Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed a media report that Tsvangirai had spent the night at the embassy but did not ask for asylum. Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen told Tsvangirai he could stay at the embassy if he needed security, the spokesman added.

Bolivia: Voters in Tarija Department passed the referendum for greater autonomy, according to the newspaper La Razon reported. Tajira joins Santa Cruz, Beni and Pando departments, all in the eastern lowland region, in voting for autonomy. Tarija holds 85 percent of Bolivia's natural gas resources and accounts for 13 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

End of NightWatch for 23 June.