NightWatch

For the Night of 8 June 2008

Pakistan: Pakistani media broadcast and published excerpts of President Musharraf’s press briefing about his future. "I am not tendering resignation now," he told journalists. “I will keep watching. I can't become a useless vegetable," he said. "Parliament is supreme. Whatever it will decide will be accepted by me ... but I will not like to try to be uselessly around….My going or staying depends on Pakistan and me and nobody else," he said. “I will not make judgment under pressure ... I will judge whether I have any value for this country or not," he said. "Secondly, I certainly, very emphatically want to say I cannot preside over the downfall of Pakistan," said Musharraf.

Some Pakistani analysts at The News interpreted the last statement as exposing his “messianic complex.” Apparently, Musharraf has persuaded himself that he must stay in office as long as he can so as to save Pakistan from its elected government. If he concludes he cannot do that, he implied he would leave office.

The Sharif’s are prepared to accept Musharraf’s challenge. Shahbaz Sharif, brother to the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), today called for Musharraf to step down. Musharraf's "dictatorship" is "taking its last breath," Sharif said, adding that Musharraf should step down in the greater interest of Pakistan so the new government can function.

Sharif made the comments in Lahore after being elected Chief Minister of Punjab Province, the same post he held when Musharraf ousted the government of his brother Nawaz in 1999. Yesterday, the new PML-N provincial government took its oath of office.

Musharraf’s statements are a public challenge, or a dare, to the Coalition to take action against him. They indicate he does not intend to make it easy on Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. Pakistan Peoples’ Party leader Zardari’s reaction was tepid, but he did admit, for the first time, that he had advised Musharraf to step down. Otherwise he restated truisms about parliamentary authority and declined to respond

Turkey: On 7 June, combat aircraft bombed a Kurdish rebel target in the Zap region of northern Iraq, according to a statement on the military's website. A PKK spokesman said the strike hit empty bases, causing no casualties. These attacks are reminders that the Turks remain vigilant.

Iran-Iraq: In his arrival statement in Tehran on 7 June, Iraqi Prime Minister al Maliki said, “All groups ... in Iraq emphasize strengthening ties with Iran in all fields," according to a state broadcast. He also said, "We will not allow Iraq to become a place (used) for harming Iran's ... security." Al Maliki made the statements after a meeting with Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

The US security agreements are obviously high on the agenda of al Maliki’s trip, as noted last week. Iranian and Iraqi defense ministers met 8 June in Tehran, where they signed a memorandum of understanding on military cooperation and discussed boosting defense and security ties, Iran's Fars news agency reported.

Sudan: President al-Bashir and southern leader Salva Kiir have agreed to international arbitration to settle their dispute over the border town of Abyei. After intense negotiations the two sides have now agreed on an interim administration for Abyei and a border settlement under international arbitration. The region's border will be considered by international arbitration. Abyei has been at the heart of a long-standing dispute that threatens a 2005 peace deal which ended years of war.

This is good news, but the dispute apparently was moving towards a resolution at the time the UN regional coordinator sounded his warning last week. Some UN regional coordinators in Africa have a track record of inflating threats apparently to ensure issues receive adequate international attention. For example, they have issued urgent warnings of war repeatedly concerning the Eritrea-Ethiopia border dispute. These have been false alarms because no other signs of war preparations were reported by other sources. They have done the same for Sudan several times in the past year. There have been clashes but the peace has held.

Their public statements make it difficult to gauge whether the threats are real or whether the peace agreements are actually fracturing instead of just under strain. These may be considered successes of warning, but the UN people are in danger of overusing the tactic.

Zimbabwe: The High Court overruled a government ban on opposition political rallies and ordered the government to release an opposition politician it had detained this weekend. The High Court has made itself a target of the military junta that backs Mugabe.

Algeria: Two explosions at a train station in Beni Amrane, east of Algiers, killed 13 people. The explosions were staggered deliberately so that first responders became the target of the second detonation. Both bombs were detonated by remote control. This is third bombing incident in less than a week. Today’s attack is tactically the most sophisticated this year.

The bombing might have been in retaliation for a sweep by Algerian security forces that killed and wounded several members of al Qaida in the Maghreb on 7 June in the same district.

Venezuela: President Chavez announced he will amend a controversial new security law that would have required citizens to spy on each other people and would have imposed punishment for failing to cooperate with intelligence agencies. Venezuelan critics of the measure compared the law to one in Cuba where informant networks operate to safeguard the communist government.

Chavez’ reversal occurred after thousands protested it and a separate move to bar some opposition candidates from standing for election. Protestors believe the government is cracking down on non-supporters.

Today in his weekly television and radio broadcast, Chavez told the FARC guerrillas in Colombia to end their guerrilla war. "The guerrilla war is history," he said. "At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerrilla movement is out of place." He also urged the new leader of the FARC, Alfonso Cano, to release the hostages and to make peace.

The BBC noted that two months ago Chavez called the FARC a legitimate army, was providing it support and considered it the future of Colombia. The Venezuelan government has provided no explanation for the reversal.

End of NightWatch for 8 June.