NightWatch

For the Night of 6 June 2008

North Korea-US: Representatives will meet in Pyongyang the week of 9 June for talks on the technical details of a proposed North Korean declaration spelling out its nuclear program as required under a deal reached in the six-party framework, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported June 5. The nuclear experts reportedly will consider a plan to demolish the cooling tower at North Korea's Yongbyon reactor.

Two things are happening, according to well informed analysts. US officials are drafting the North Korean declaration of its nuclear facilities – the handful that are being declared – which will put North Korea in compliance with its commitments to the Six Party process. This declaration is now almost six months overdue.

Then the US officials plan to help orchestrate a sensational destruction of the cooling tower at Yongbyon, including arrangements to have it televised around the world. The tower has been shut down for a year and is crumbling. This is showmanship, not diplomacy; spectacle over substance.

If US officials are doing the work on the declaration, the North would seem to have agreed to disclose very little on its own account and could disavow the US-drafted declaration at any time it chooses. As noted in Pritchard’s recent trip report, the North decided two years ago to shut down Yongbyon. It apparently is trying to persuade the US to pay for its nuclear waste without having to disclose its nuclear arsenal.

North Korea-Japan: Officials from the two countries are scheduled to hold their first unofficial talks since October 2007 in Beijing on 7 June, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura said today. The talks will cover unresolved issues, including North Korea's past abductions of Japanese citizens, in preparation for a possible return to bilateral talks, Machimura said.

Apparently under pressure, the Japanese have agreed to test prospects for more talks on the past kidnappings of Japanese citizens by North Korean intelligence agents, which Kim Chong-il admitted years ago. This is another form of extortion, but the Japanese are thus far not falling for it. They are willing to talk, but not pay.

The North is acting conciliatory to the US and Japan, but remains hostile to the blunt and tough-talking South Korean government. This is the latest example of North Korea’s shopworn tactic of driving wedges among allies, one more time. It is easy to defeat this tactic, but the Allies have to work in concert, which is not happening at this time.

Iraq-Iran: Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki plans to visit Tehran on 8 June to discuss with Iranian President Ahmadi-nejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opportunities for expanding Iraqi-Iranian ties and to discuss resuming the U.S.-Iranian talks over Iraqi security, according to media comments by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.

The timing suggests al Maliki is seeking guidance on how to respond to the US proposed status of forces and basing agreements and the furor they are generating.

Iraq: Thousands of Iraqis protested in Baghdad's Sadr City and the southern holy cities of Kerbala and Najaf today against the negotiations over draft agreements on US basing and Status of Forces. Some protesters carried placards rejecting "permanent occupation."

According to Reuters, Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih said today that U.S. officials have asked that no restrictions be placed on troop movement, but he said that "there will not be freedom of movement" for U.S. soldiers in Iraq. U.S. officials have said that they will not comment on the details of the ongoing negotiations.

The rumors and leaks, plus the accurate and misguided information about these negotiations, have the potential to terminate the lull in the violence. Sunnis and Shiites, Arabs and Persians, are universally opposed to an open-ended, unrestrained presence of US military forces in Iraq.

All Arab and Persian reporting outlets indicate these issues are so grave that they could lead to anti-US violence without warning. They are precisely the kinds of issue that can bridge differences between Sunnis and Shiites so as to unite in a war against non-Muslim soldiers. The lack of openness about these negotiations undermines the credibility of all US public statements, according to Arab and Iranian media treatment. These negotiations have confirmed some of the worst suspicions among some Arabs and Persians about long term American intentions. This situation is dangerous.

Turkey: A member of parliament from the ruling AK Party today charged that the Constitutional Court acted unconstitutionally when it ruled that a constitutional amendment was unconstitutional. Hunh??

Israel: An attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear sites "will be unavoidable" because sanctions to force Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program are not working, Reuters reported, quoting Israeli Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz. Mofaz said that Israel would attack Iran if the country "continues its program for developing nuclear weapons." He also said that Iranian President Ahmadi-nejad "would disappear before Israel does," in response to a statement by Ahmadi-nejad that Israel would be wiped off the map.

Every Israeli public statement of this kind is crafted to prod the US into attacking Iran, supposedly to prevent Israel from striking first and alone. The statements are parts of the Israeli psychological warfare campaign against the United States to prompt it to attack Iran. The campaign is now in its third year, at least.

Egypt: Egyptian-born Muslim cleric and television host Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi said in a fatwa (religious edict) on his website that Egyptian worker productivity problems can be solved by praying less and working more. “Praying is a good thing ... 10 minutes should be enough,” Al-Jazeera television celebrity Qaradawi said.

According to an official study, Egypt’s six million government employees are estimated to spend an average of only 27 minutes per day actually working, reflecting a real problem with productivity. The rest of the time they are praying. Qaradawi’s fatwa is aimed at removing prayer as a pretext for not working.

Algeria: Six soldiers were killed and four were wounded in a roadside bomb attack 6 June in Cap Djinet, Agence France-Presse reported. The soldiers were returning to barracks on Thursday after a fishing expedition in the seaside town, about 80 kilometers (50 miles) from Algiers, when their vehicle struck a bomb buried in the road, the sources said. Islamist militants are suspected in the attack, but it is not known when the bomb was placed. On the facts reported, this does not signify an improvement in terrorist capabilities or operational tempo. It was an IED that went undetected.

Zimbabwe: Authorities stopped opposition presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai from campaigning for the 27 June election today and detained him for the second time this week. Tsvangirai was released from the police station at Esigodini, 40 km (25 miles) southeast of Zimbabwe's second largest city Bulaweyo, a few hours after being stopped by armed police at a roadblock.

They also issued an order banning "several future rallies,” after arresting Tsvangirai. The length or extent of the ban, which cites security fears, is not yet clear.

An analysis in the Telegraph restates and expands on the allegations that the Joint Operations Command has taken control of the government, retaining Mugabe as a figurehead. For a brief time after the election results indicated Tsvangirai won a plurality, Mugabe’s behavior and statements suggested vacillation and willingness to concede defeat. The period of confusion was so brief that it was impossible to assess its authenticity or durability. The indicators were so compelling that NightWatch almost wrote a story predicting that Mugabe was on the verge of stepping, but waited because the military influence had yet to register.

Within a week, the uncertainty was replaced by a firm sense of determination to win the run off election and the start of the intimidation campaign. The Telegraph’s item indicates there was, in fact, a period of confusion during which Mugabe nearly resigned from office. However, the generals of the Joint Operations Command intervened, prevented Mugabe’s resignation, guaranteed his re-election and instigated the present terror campaign to ensure his victory in the run off.

According to the Telegraph, the most powerful figures on the JOC are General Constantine Chiwenga, the overall defense force chief; Augustine Chihuri, the national police commissioner, and General Paradzai Zimondi, the commander of the prison service. Air Marshal Perence Shiri, the commander of the air force, who masterminded a brutal military campaign against Zimbabwe's minority Ndebele people in the 1980s, is also part of the circle, although believed to be less influential. All four fought in Mugabe's guerrilla army during the war against white rule in the 1970s. Each has publicly proclaimed his support for the ruling Zanu-PF party.

If Mugabe resigns, these men must flee Zimbabwe. They are not prepared to do that at this time. In early March, Chiwenga threatened an overt military coup is Mugabe lost the run off election. This is a military coup in the style of the Bangladesh coup last January, operating behind a civilian facade.

Ukraine: The ruling pro-Western coalition lost its parliamentary majority after two of its members resigned, members, according to the BBC. One was from President Viktor Yushchenko's party and the other was from Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko's bloc. A spokesman for Timoshenko said that the government will continue to function. The governing coalition can normally also count on the vote of one unaligned member, giving it a majority.

This setback to the pro-NATO ruling coalition coincided with a strong statement by Russian President Medvedev that Russia will continue to oppose any additional eastward expansion of NATO, meaning allowing either the Ukraine or Georgia to join. Most Ukrainians do not favor NATO membership, despite the views of President Yushchenko.

Mali: The government replaced most of its senor military and security officers in order to improve leadership of the armed forces in suppressing the year old Tuareg insurgency in the remote Saharan north. President Amadou Toumani Toure's government decided to make the changes at an extraordinary cabinet meeting late yesterday after two days of fierce fighting in the border region near Algeria. The latest fighting occurred after army units attacked rebel positions around Insalat, a stronghold of Touareg insurgent leader Ibrahima Bahanga in the northeastern Kidal region.

The overall armed forces chief, the head of the air force and the national directors of both the police and the paramilitary gendarmerie were replaced, according to a government communiqué.

Colonel Gabriel Podiougou, head of the land army, was promoted to overall armed forces chief. "Since the start of the conflict he has not spent more than a week in Bamako. He's always with his men in the field -- in a region he knows well after serving more than seven years in northern Mali," a military official, who declined to be named, said of Podiougou.

The Touaregs pose no threat to the government in Bamako but do threaten a major source of revenue by harassing the French gold mining companies up-country. As in Niger, where the Touaregs threaten the French uranium mines, they want more autonomy and a share of the revenues from mines in territory they consider theirs.

Venezuela: For the record. Venezuelan pilots, presumably, flew five Russian Sukhoi fighter jets over the military base on La Orchila island in the Caribbean Sea and dropped a half-ton bomb and fired a KH-59 missile at a target on the water, while a patrol boat shot an Otomat surface-to-surface missile at the target, Reuters reported. Not much of a display, but the weapons were all not made in the USA.

End of NightWatch for 6 June.