NightWatch

For the Night of 23 April 2008

US-North Korea-Syria: The international news services are reporting that the CIA will brief the US Congress on Israeli evidence that North Korea was assisting Syria in constructing a Yongbyon-type nuclear reactor. According to the reports, the site destroyed by Israel last year was the location where the reactor was to have been built and North Koreans were at the site when it was attacked.

This is an intelligence game that begs the question why Syria would pay for 50–year old technology that has yet to show it can work? The Yongbyon reactor is old technology that the North Koreans have kept limping along long past its useful life, which is normal for North Korea. They still fly MiG-15s for training. The MiG-15 was the main enemy of the US Sabre jets in the Korean War; most were flown by Soviet air force pilots.

The Syrian military relationship with North Korea is decades old and has centered on the sale of Scud missiles, support systems and the technology to make them. It is in Israel’s interest to ensure none of its neighbors develops a nuclear capability. Israeli intelligence will be crafted to support the righteousness of the Israeli attack. Nevertheless, that does not explain why Syria would purchase 1950’s era nuclear technology.

Sri Lanka: The Sri Lankan Army walked into an ambush in the Jaffna Peninsula during its latest offensive to reduce the Tamil Tigers’s strong points in the northern part of the country. Over 100 men died and 400 were injured.

The incompetence of Sri Lankan tactical intelligence has become legendary. On the other hand, bit-by-bit the Tamil Tigers are losing the fight. Government operations in the east against the Tigers produced repeated battalion-echelon disaster such as this.

The Sri Lankan Army has some bright men at the top but few in the ranks below. Still, with more resources and a larger manpower pool plus the critical help of the Indian government in preventing resupply from Tamil Nadu State across the Palk Strait, the government in Colombo is gradually wearing and beating down the Tigers. The world will be a better place when the Tigers are a memory. Behind the scenes assistance to a successful counterinsurgency campaign would seem to be in the US interest.

Afghanistan: Denmark and the Netherlands have evacuated their embassies in Kabul because of security threats. The immediate issue is the Danes have allowed publication of materials that Islamists find insulting. Curious that a religion is so insecure that its members feel challenged by ridicule, satire and other forms of free speech.

Afghanistan-India: India announced today that an increase in attacks and kidnappings against its 4,000 civilian workers in Afghanistan will not dissuade it from providing development assistance. Two road workers were kidnapped today.

“We cannot succumb to the pressure of Taliban or any extremist group. Our approach is of zero tolerance," declared External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee. “This is exactly what the Taliban want. They do not want any development activity in Afghanistan. Almost everyday we are facing this problem. Threats and minor attacks are taking place on a daily basis," he added.

Mukherjee has the right of it. Development and progress stalemated under Taliban rule. One of the main tasks the Indians have undertaken is road construction in western Afghanistan. The road work cuts the infiltration routes used by the Taliban. More importantly, any increase in Indian influence in Kabul is viewed with suspicion by Pakistani intelligence. Thus the Taliban continue to fight as proxies for Pakistan.

Syria-Israel: Multiple international press services reported remarks by Israel Prime Minister Ohlmert that Israel is prepared to withdraw from the Golan Heights in return for a peace agreement. Earlier this week, Hamas leaders in Damascus indicated they would accept boundaries, without recognizing Israel.

Analyses by the now defunct National Warning Staff proved that in any race to mobilize, Israel could put more combat ready troops on the Golan Heights faster than Syria could generate military power. Worse. The last time Syria attempted to mobilize for war in 1982, it failed to assemble the necessary personnel and failed to reach full combat readiness. From the Heights, the drive to Damascus is down hill with no good defense terrain.

Israel can deploy several combat ready reserve divisions of armor and infantry on the Heights in 72 hours. Syria would require at least 13 days and probably longer now because Syria has not practiced its mobilization doctrine in over 20 years.

Thus, Israeli possession of the Golan Heights has not been a national security issue for decades. One important consideration is possession of Mount Hermon where the Israelis have sophisticated sensing equipment. As long as Israel possesses Mount Hermon and the Heights are demilitarized, control of the Golan Heights is not a strategic military obstacle to a peace settlement.

The political issues and status of settlements are other matters. The terms of Ohlmert’s offer are also not known in the public domain. Nevertheless, the security argument is a not an obstacle to a peace agreement, provided the Heights are demilitarized.

Zimbabwe: The Electoral Commission announced that the results of the balloting recount in the first two districts to be recounted confirmed the initial count. The government and the opposition each won one seat. Twenty-one more districts to go.

The local media printed what looked like a government feeler about prospects for a national unity government early today, but the offer was disowned and retracted by day’s end. Both sides have hardened positions and oppose cooperation until the recount is completed. Today’s events suggest miscommunication and lack of coordination in the Mugabe camp. The outcome is hardly in doubt now. If Mugabe does not win, then he has lost his magic.

Paraguay: President-elect Lugo said yesterday that one of his first foreign policy initiatives will be to recognize China. Paraguay recognized Taiwan since 1958 and remains the only South American country to do so. The Paraguay Congress must still approve his opening to China.

Lugo will take office on 15 August.

Bolivia-Venezuela-Nicaragua-Cuba: The leaders of the ALBA trading bloc met today. International news services only described two issues discussed thus far. The agreed to establish a fund for reversing the high prices of food in their states. Second, they supported Bolivian President Morales in opposing a referendum on increased autonomy bordering on secession by Bolivia’s wealthy Santa Cruz Department. The referendum is to be held in May. Four departments are threatening autonomy bordering on secession.

The support for Morales raises the prospect that the countries might send arms or even soldiers to prevent autonomy by the four Bolivian departments.

Adminstrative note: NightWatch is fighting the flu and the flu is winning.

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