NightWatch

For the Night of 15 April 2008

 

China-Tibet:  After April 30, local Public Security Personnel in the Lhasa municipality will be losing their jobs because authorities announced that “the military” would be assuming their responsibilities. Most of the local Public Security Personnel are Tibetans whom the Han Chinese do not trust.

 

Public Security Personnel are the local police.  “The military” is most like the Peoples Armed Police, which roughly correspond to the French Gendarmerie, and are traditionally recruited from retired soldiers for the Peoples Liberation Army.  This move indirectly implies that stability is fragile. The increased cost of using the Peoples Armed Police in local law enforcement means that the authorities in Beijing consider security conditions volatile and unpredictable.

 

Pakistan:  The leaders of the ruling Coalition, Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, were unable to agree on a formula to restore the judges dismissed by President Musharraf last November. They decided to hold a series of meetings on the issue after consultations with their respective party leaderships.

According to a report in the Daily Times, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif sought time to consult his party on a Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) proposal to fix the tenure of chief justices in an arrangement similar to that for services chiefs. 

 

 “A resolution [to restore the judges] will be moved in parliament before April 30,” a PML-N source said after the meeting. However, a PPP source claimed that the resolution could be delayed until the next session of the National Assembly. “There are minor differences over the issue of fixing the tenure of the supreme and high court chief justices,” he said, adding that the PPP wanted the chief judges’ tenure to be fixed for three to four years.

 

Afghanistan:  The Taliban official web site this week contains numerous references to “The Lesson” in describing the “success” of Taliban attacks in the second week of April.  “The Lesson” is the name given to the Taliban spring offensive and is derived from a 25 March statement and posting by the Deputy to Taliban leader Mohammed Omar. Excerpts follow.

 

From the time that the unbelievers invaded our Afghanistan homeland making jihad compulsory upon us, each day that has followed the jihad has intensified. As winter falls behind us and spring emerges, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has launched a new operation dubbed “Ibrat” or “Lesson” throughout the country.

The purpose of this new operation is to attack the enemy where they least expect it in order to force them out of Afghanistan. The invaders have bombed our homes, massacred many civilians and tortured innocent Afghans. They think that this mayhem will break the Afghans so that they will abandon Jihad however the invaders power and wealth has done nothing to stop the jihad….

This new operation will include new tactics as well as some old ones and the enemy will be surrounded throughout the whole country. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan warns those civilians and soldiers working with puppet Karzai, to stop working for these apostates and join their Mujahedin brothers in fighting the enemies of Islam. That day is not far off when the whole world will witness the collapse of the Karzai administration at the hands of Mujahedin with the help of Allah Almighty….

 

Mullah Bradar Muhammad
Deputy Leader
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

25 March 2008”

 

Comment:  The Taliban boast every year about their spring offensive.  The difference this year is the fighting groups are selecting targets and employing tactics that are consistent with the above statement.  They are attacking in districts outside the Pashtun homeland more frequently and attacking less well defended and thus more vulnerable government positions.

 

There are fewer IEDs and Suicide attacks, but more direct attacks to surround isolated Afghan outposts and kill the defenders. This is a terror tactic aimed at the forces of order which they have even tried to use against one US outpost in Khost Province.  If they succeed in capturing an American outpost, the defenders must expect to be tortured and killed, as the mujahedin did to Soviet soldiers using similar tactics.

 

One explanation for the signs of a strategy is that Pakistani senior and field grade officers have been assisting the Taliban leadership in Pakistan. Although that allegation has not been confirmed, the Taliban are learning and innovating -- not adapting -- as attested in the report from the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office, below. The good news is that coordination of a national strategy requires communications using cell phones.  Attacks against cell phone towers have stopped. That is also the bad news.

 

The Reuters AlertNet repeated excerpts today from the latest report on security conditions in Afghanistan by the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office (ANSO). According to the report, attacks on non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and aid workers by anti-government forces, chiefly Taliban insurgents, have risen sharply in the first quarter of 2008. "NGO security incidents attributed to armed opposition groups have doubled from eight in the first quarter of 2007 to 16 in the same period this year," said Nic Lee, the ANSO director in Kabul.

 

Sixteen of the 29 direct attacks on NGOs across the country, from January to the end of March 2008, were initiated and/or executed by Taliban insurgents and other rebel fighters, the report said. The remaining 13 were attributed to criminals who attack NGOs mostly for financial gain.  Nine NGO workers lost their lives and nine others were wounded in seven separate armed attacks by anti-government elements, ANSO said.

 

In seven armed incidents 12 people were kidnapped, leading to two additional fatalities, including a female US citizen who worked for the Asian Rural Life Development Foundation in Kandahar Province.  "Our data demonstrates a serious escalation in fatalities with nearly as many killed in the first three months of 2008 as were killed in all of 2007," Lee told IRIN, adding that cases of abductions had also seen a marked increase.

 

The numbers are small but important as early evidence of a change in targeting strategy aimed at deterring outside investors and aid for the Karzai government. Kidnapping is a longstanding outlaw tactic to raise money. Cooperation with bandit gangs is new in that the Taliban suppressed banditry when they were in power.  Other ANSO data indicate a major surge in attacks is developing, but not against Coalition forces so much as against more vulnerable targets … as Mullah Bradar warned.

 

Iran:  For the record.  The New York Times posted on 16 April that Tehran’s police chief has been arrested, according to a spokesman for the judiciary on 15 April.  At a news conference today, the spokesman, Alireza Jamshidi, would not give the reason for the arrest, the semiofficial Fars news agency reported. Multiple web sites and local newspapers reported last month that the chief, General Reza Zarei, had been arrested after being caught in flagrante delicto in a police raid at an underground brothel with six prostitutes.  The announcement on Tuesday was the first official confirmation of the arrest.

 

Zarei, described as a “favorite” of President Ahmadi-nejad, was responsible for the crackdown on immodestly dressed women during the past year. Thousands of young women were detained for violating the Islamic dress code, usually for wearing head scarves that showed too much hair, coats that were tight enough to reveal the figure or slacks that were too short.

 

 The judiciary spokesman did not comment on whether or how the arrest would affect implementation of the dress code which has alienated the urban young adults and students.

 

Iraq:  Update on the Khoei murder story.  On 15 April, Al-Arabiyah reported "informed Iraqi sources" said that Iraqi National Security Adviser Muwaffaq al-Rubay'i was behind the report that Muqtada al –Sadr was wanted for murdering Ayatollah al Khoie/Khui.  Al-Rubay’i "contacted" the al-Khoei family to urge them to revive a five year old indictment of Sadr for Khoei’s assassination.

 

The family confirmed that Al-Rubay'i contacted the family on Saturday, 12 April, "and asked us to reopen the file pertaining to the assassination.  The family spokesman also accused “certain political figures" of exploiting the assassination for political gains and, upon the insistence of the Al Arabiyah interviewer, identified those “figures” as "those who strive to become the prime ministers of Iraq at the expense of the blood of martyrs."

 

The spokesman said, "Unfortunately, there is information indicating that all Iraqi political parties and some regional countries, in addition to the incumbent government, have agreed to eliminate this person [Muqtada al-Sadr], but some want to eliminate the accused [Al-Sadr] at our expense, and we will not let anyone exploit this case.  We demand that the arrest warrants that were issued on 28 August 2003 by Iraqi judge Ra'id Juhi be activated.  These accusations were not made by the family, but were based on documents, eyewitness accounts, and statements by some members of Muqtada al-Sadr's office who had testified against him."

 

Investigating Magistrate Judge Ra’id Juhi issued 30 arrest warrants, including for al Sadr, that were never fully executed. No one was prosecuted and two dozen men arrested at the time were released.  Some 40,000 Iraqis were in US custody for participating in the insurgency at that time, overwhelming efforts to jump start the Ministry of Justice.

 

Nevertheless, Judge Juhi was key in US efforts to try to restore the rule of law. He investigated the assassination of Bakr Al Hakim in 2003 but the perpetrators of that murder were never found.  He also was the chief investigating magistrate providing the evidence that convicted Saddam Hussein of mass murder. He is now a fellow at Cornell law school and a target for assassination if he returns to Iraq.

 

The significance of this report is that it tends to confirm that the government has mounted a multi-level effort to neutralize al Sadr and defang his militias by legal and military action.  Al Maliki is using Iraqi and western forces to eliminate his political rivals as much as to improve law and order.

 

Zimbabwe:  The general strike flopped, although police arrested 30 opposition members for offences linked to a general strike. Prices are too high and wages too low for opposition supporters to stay away from work.

 

The opposition movement has fizzled. Mugabe will win in a run-off because he is not likely to allow another free and reasonably fair election. Voting in the run-off will be a life or death choice.

 

Paraguay:  Presidential elections are scheduled for 20 April. The campaign has been marked by violent exchanges. President Nicanor Duarte today denounced "troublemakers" from Venezuela and Ecuador whom he said traveled to Asuncion, the capital, "to cloud elections."

 

"Troublemakers from Venezuela and Ecuador came here and are staying in hotels downtown to cloud elections," said Duarte to local radio stations, reported AFP and el Universal.com. The pro-government party claims that former bishop and arch leftist, Fernando Lugo is receiving support from Presidents Hugo Chávez (Venezuela), Evo Morales (Bolivia), and Rafael Correa (Ecuador). Lugo is the front runner in the polls.

 

If Lugo is elected, Chavez’ anti-US socialist fraternity will gain a new member.

 

Food and Instability

Jordan:  Three people were killed in two days of prison protests over poor conditions including “soaring food and energy prices.”  Jordan's main opposition party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), warned on Monday that social unrest was likely as a result of "insufficient" government policies to tackle soaring prices in the cash-strapped country.

 

Al Jazeerah reported prices in Jordan have risen sharply this year, with the cost of domestic fuel up by 76.1 per cent since January and electricity prices up by as much as 38 per cent.

 

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