NightWatch

For the Night of 13 April 2008

North Korea: U.S. military authorities have been closely watching the North Korean arm since spotting signs of lively activity at a missile launch site in North Korea, CNN reported Friday. Quoting two U.S. military officers, CNN reported satellite photos recently spotted personnel, vehicles and materials moving toward the Rodong/Nodong missile base in Shinori/Sinori, in northwestern North Korea. Rodong/Nodong-1 missiles with a range of 1,300 km capable of striking most of the Japanese islands are reportedly deployed at the Shinori site.

"The activity has prompted concerns Pyongyang is planning a new round of ballistic missile tests of either medium or longer range missiles," the unnamed officers said. But CNN added, "The activity is in its early stages and it's not yet possible to determine what the North Koreans are doing." The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff on Sunday said, "We haven't confirmed reports of signs of North Korea preparing for a missile launch in Shinori."

Unusual and unexplained missile activity at west coast facilities has caused a stir in the past, leading some analysts to predict missile launches that did not take place. It is an active Nodong missile garrison, according to several missile proliferation web sites, so a launch would serve a practical purpose of crew training.

However, North Korean forces have never launched a Nodong ballistic missile from a west coast facility. North Korean leaders probably are uncertain how the US and South Korea would react. Without media preparation, a Nodong launch could be interpreted by the US and South Korean command as a severe provocation, bordering on an act of war. If the North intended to set the precedent of using a west coast missile range, a crisis atmosphere would provide the cover it needs. At this time, no launch looks likely, but this is one of the four hypotheses that NightWatch is monitoring to help explain the North’s current tantrum.

South Korea-North Korea: South Korea will deal calmly with North Korea despite recent actions which have raised cross-border tensions, President Lee Myung-Bak promised today. The conservative leader, in a televised news conference, said the two Koreas were in “an adjustment period” since his inauguration in February.

Nepal: Nepal's Maoists have taken an early lead in the count from last Thursday’s elections for a Constituent Assembly that will rewrite the constitution and most likely abolish the monarchy. They are expected to win up to 40% of the 601 seats.

In a dozen years, a Maoist insurgency in a landlocked mountainous country that does not produce modern weapons has fought its way to political legitimacy and is on the verge of converting a kingdom into a socialist republic. The core constituency is the overwhelming numbers of poor Nepalese. Nepal has 28.9 million people, a third of whom are below the poverty line, according to the CIA Factbook. Per capita GDP is $1,100 but that is a statistical calculation. The poor live on less than $1 a day, according to press interviews this weekend.

Readers should note that China is not a source of aid to the Maoists. China has maintained tight control of the Nepal-China border to prevent arms, finances and personnel from infiltrating from the Chinese side. The Chinese communists are no longer interested in promoting revolutionary movements along the borders and consistently encouraged restoration of stability in Nepal without getting involved.

That raises the question, who provided guns, ammunition and other military-related supplies to the Maoists. Some equipment was stolen, captured of illegally purchased from Nepal’s forces. There is also strong reason to suspect Indian entities because India’s political elite are viscerally hostile to monarchy. India has provided only limited police aid in response to requests from Nepal’s’ King and took no action that would prolong the monarchy.

The role of the Indian intelligence services in providing covert aid has not been proven. Apparently, Maoist sympathizers in the border state of Uttar Pradesh were an important factor in the Maoist struggle, but no sources exposed the mechanism. Nevertheless, a Maoist electoral win which will be followed by the establishment of a new Himalayan republic as a buffer to China would seem to favor Indian strategic interests more than China’s.

Pakistan: The Daily Times reported on 14 April that the formula for restoring Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and his fellow judges will include protection for the judgments and decisions of the post-November 3 Provisional Constitution Order Supreme Court. Chaudhry will get his job back but the National Assembly would uphold the Musharraf ban on reviewing the emergency decisions. One variant of this is that Chaudhry and the other judges would be restored to office and then asked to retire.

Parliament also will start the process of vetting all the judges and relieve those who are disqualified on grounds of merit for one or other reasons. The National Assembly does not intend to dismiss the judges installed by Musharraf arbitrarily, but will include them in the vetting process with the restored judges.

These are the core features of the compromise that is to be discussed on 14 April between the party leaders. As reported it would not seem to satisfy Nawaz Sharif’s terms that the National Assembly should restore the judiciary to its status as of 2 November, the day before the emergency proclamation.

Iraq: An Iraqi news agency source who is said to be close to the Shiite religious authority (called the hawzah) in Al-Najaf reported that the seclusion of Shiite authority Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and his noninterference in the ongoing struggle between the Sadrist militia and the Iraqi forces is due to his deteriorating health condition.

This condition has confined him to bed and prevented him from making a statement to stop fighting and work for peace, as he has done in the past. For example, Sistani’s direct intervention in 2005 resulted in an agreement between the Al-Sadr Trend and the government of then Prime Minister Iyad Allawi following a series of battles between them. This occurred after Sistani returned from a medical trip to London.

The source said that Al-Sistani authorized his son, Muhammad Rida, to run the affairs of the religious authority without issuing rulings on sensitive issues. There are other senior Shiite religious scholars in Najaf who could succeed to his position as the leader of the hawzah, but none have Sistani’s national religious following and none have Sadr’s political following. Sistani’s death would remove a powerful force for moderation and tolerance.

Zimbabwe: The Election Commission called for a recount of all presidential, parliamentary, senate and council votes in 23 constituencies next Saturday, primarily in response to challenges by the ruling ZANU-PF party. The opposition reacted by promising to challenge the recount order in court.

A change in the parliamentary result by nine seats could see President Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party regain its lost majority in the assembly.

Haiti: Haitian lawmakers dismissed the country's prime minister in a move to defuse widespread anger over rising food prices that led to days of deadly protests and looting. President Rene Preval, who earlier announced plans to cut the price of rice, immediately said he would seek a replacement for the ousted Jacques-Edouard Alexis. Prime Minister Alexis is the first political casualty of the international food crisis in Haiti.

Alexis is not the first victim of violence from the crisis. After the dismissal of the prime minister on Saturday, violence flared in Port au Prince. A UN police officer bringing food to his unit drove a marked UN vehicle into a crowded clothing market near the cathedral, where he was dragged from the car and shot through the neck, UN police spokesman Fred Blaise said. The incident is the first execution-style killing of a UN peacekeeper since the mission came to Haiti in 2004, Blaise said.

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