NightWatch
For the Night of 9
April 2008
North Korea: North Korea has reached an
agreement on compensation in exchange for providing full details of its nuclear
programs, the Foreign Ministry announced today.
"As a result of the talks, a consensus was reached on the US
measure to make political compensation and the nuclear declaration essential
for winding up the implementation of the agreement," an unidentified
spokesman was quoted as saying by the Korean Central News Agency.
The deal includes North
Korea's demand to be removed from a US terrorism blacklist, as
well as energy aid and major diplomatic and security benefits. US
Ambassador Hill denied a “major breakthrough” has occurred.
The North never announces good news on talks before the US, unless it
is laying a trap. This is a setup to
pressure the US
administration into making concessions or to justify increased tension in the
likely event the US balks,
based on something the North will claim was promised them in Singapore. By NightWatch’s count this would be the third time since
the start of Six Party Talks that the North has pulled this stunt.
South Korea: The
ruling Grand National Party has won a majority by a narrow margin in
parliamentary elections. Early results from the National Election Commission
show the Grand National Party has won at least 153 seats in the 299-seat
legislature.
The significance of the election result is that it
reinforces the analysis by a few astute NightWatch readers that the populace of South Korea has had enough of placating North Korea
without some return on investment. President Lee is the leading spokesman of a
voter swing towards a more mature relationship with the petulant leaders of the
North.
Political analysis about Korea, and a few other crisis-prone
systems, tends to personalize everything, but that is not how any government
works. The latest North-South
contretemps is often described in terms of Kim vs. Lee. Yet both men are at the top of large
bureaucratic and information systems that channel information and narrow
issues.
It is easy to forget that even on the level of diplomacy the
struggle is between very different systems. In South Korea’s democratic system,
with its warts and blemishes, President Lee represents the views of a majority
of South Korean voters and interests in ways that Kim Chong-il will never
understand. New analysts need to avoid personification in their thinking and
writing, except as metaphor.
Burma: The
ruling junta have published their proposed new constitution, which critics say
will strengthen their grip on power and weaken the opposition. The 194-page
document has gone on sale at government bookshops at a cost of 1,000 kyat ($1;
50p) a copy. This is the document that
took a large committee 14 years to draft.
It will be submitted to a popular referendum on 10 May as part of the
Burmese roadmap to democracy.
Pakistan: Nine people were killed in Karachi today in clashes
between lawyers supporting President Musharraf and those opposing him, AAJ
TV reported. Rioting in the city was reported, and many vehicles had
been torched.
In Swat District of North West Frontier Province, about 45 armed supporters of rebel cleric
Maulana Fazlullah reappeared openly in the Matta tehsil (subdistrict) of Swat and were seen marching on the roads
on 10 April. According to locals, commanders Iqbal Hussain and Ikramuddin led
the armed militants on a march in the Shakar Darra area to within 500 meters of
a government checkpoint. Neither the security personnel at the checkpoint nor
the area police resisted the show of strength.
This is the area the Army claimed to have cleared at least three times last
year. The local Pakistan Taliban have
completed renovations on the madrassa in Imam Dheri that had once served as
headquarters for Fazlullah. The News reported they said that the
Taliban would offer their Friday prayers in the mosque from which Fazlullah had
broadcast his illegal FM radio station.
Iraq:
Prime Minister al Maliki has threatened to exclude the supporters of
Moqtada al-Sadr from politics.
Maliki told CNN that the cleric's movement would
not be allowed to take part in elections unless it disbanded its militia. On
the fifth anniversary of the US
entry into Baghdad, the Coalition is not
fighting Baathists, but Shiites in Sadr
City. A curfew is in
effect.
The Sadr Movement has a substantial bloc in the national
parliament, elected in the 2005 election along with al Maliki’s Dawa party. The
Sadrists have 29 seats and Maliki’s party has 13. Sadr’s movement was part of
the original coalition that brought Maliki to power, but which now is fractured. In a functioning parliament, this normally
would be time for a vote of confidence. Maliki has called for a cabinet
shuffle.
The Shiite fratricide continues. It places significant power
in the hands of the Iranians who provide support to all the Shiite leaders,
thereby positioning Iran
to act as a broker. The fratricide also reinforces the Sunni conviction that
the Shiites cannot rule and the Sunni time has not ended.
This evidently is what Saddam expected would happen in his
July 2003 letter calling on the Fedayeen Saddam to provoke a civil war. Saddam misjudged the tactics that would
precipitate the fratricide. He thought
violence would do it, but that united the Shiites. Ironically, the onset of reduced violence has
exposed the historic fractiousness of the Shiite tribes, the essential
condition for minority rule by the Sunni Arabs.
Left to themselves, the Shiite Arabs risk losing their only
chance ever of becoming self governing. Iran will not permit this struggle to
continue for long.
Israel: With the Palestinians again threatening to
break out of their Gaza Strip camp into Egypt
and two Israelis killed by Palestinians who infiltrated under cover of mortar
fire in the south, Defense Minister Barak summoned an emergency meeting to
consider Israel’s
security. Expect Israeli punitive operations at any time.
Egypt
sent about 1,200 security force troops to El-Arish, near the Gaza Strip border,
Reuters
reported today. The troops were dispatched from Cairo
and Ismailia
province in response to threats from Hamas to breach the border again. No
source reported their rules of engagement, such as shoot on sight or push the
Palestinians back.
Ecuador:
The top four military commanders resigned today after the President accused
the military of aiding the US
in operations against Colombian FARC rebels. The commanders of the army, navy and air
force, as well as the chief of staff, all submitted their resignations rather
than tolerate the President’s questioning of their behavior.
The resignations came hours after Defence Minister
Wellington Sandoval stepped down without explanation. President Correa also claimed last week the
CIA had been manipulating his spy agencies.
US-Russia: For the
record. US/NATO fighters
accompanied Russian Tu-95 Bear strategic bombers on a regular strategic patrol
mission over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean
on 9 April, RIA Novosti reported,
citing a Russian air force spokesman. Four Bear bombers and four Il-78 aerial
tankers performed aerial refueling as part of the second exercise of Russian
bombers near Alaska
in three weeks
dNovus RDI
San Antonio, Texas
78232
Phone:
(210) 497-7744 Fax: 497-7709
www.dNovus.com