NightWatch
For the Night of 26
March 2008
India:
National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan today accused Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
Directorate (ISID) of training "terror groups,” for operation in India,
the Press
Trust of India reported. Narayanan said the ISID is training militant
groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad and that their attacks are
likely to continue in India. Earlier this year, India
accused ISID of training Sikh militants who participated in a cinema bombing.
Coming two days
after Prime Minister’s Singh’s congratulations to Pakistani Prime Minister
Gillani, Narayanan’s statement is apparently a reminder that there remain
unsettled problems between the two. India
has put its concerns second on the external relations agenda, behind those of
the US.
One of India’s
frustrations during the Musharraf era has been that the overall improvement in
bilateral ties never led to an end to ISID support of anti-Indian Islamic
militants. Narayanan’s statement is as
much a request for greater civilian control of ISID by the new government as
much as an accusation. The Indians always suspected that Musharraf used the
terrorist groups for exerting leverage on India when he sensed he needed to
do so.
The installation of
a civilian government in Pakistan
historically has not been a portent of improved bilateral ties, mostly because
of the need for politicians to appear strong on national defense. As an army
general Musharraf was less vulnerable than civilian politicians on that issue.
The Indians are aware of the history.
Pakistan:
President Musharraf summoned the National Assembly to convene in regular
session starting at 10am on Saturday, 29 March, according to an official notice
issued today.
AAJ TV reported today the members of the coalition
government -- the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) –have reached an agreement on forming a 20-member cabinet.
The PPP will have 10 ministries, the PML-N will have eight, and the Awami
National Party and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazlur Rehman will have one each.
The parties have agreed that PPP leader Makhdoom Shah
Mehmood Qureshi will be foreign minister, and Ishaq Dar of the PML-N will be
finance minister. The coalition partners
are expected to announce other members on 28 March 28. The complete Cabinet
lineup will be finalized by 29 March.
Afghanistan: The Taliban have
threatened to increase attacks in Afghanistan this spring, saying
they will use new techniques, The Associated Press reported. NightWatch
tracking shows the number of attacks resulting in casualties and property
damage is 84 as of 25 March and on track to break 100 for the first month since
last December. In March 2007 NightWatch
tracked 120 attacks.
Roadside bombs and suicide attacks continue to be the most
deadly, but a slight increase in frontal attacks against regular forces has
occurred. Usually Taliban fighting
groups avoid firefights with Allied military forces because of superior firepower
and tactical air support. The Taliban
regularly attack Afghan police posts.
Another distinctive feature is an increase in the number of
attacks outside the Pashtun south. About
one fourth of the attacks this month are outside the south and southeast. This dispersion pattern appeared much later
in the year in 2007.
Finally, the Taliban continue their campaign against the
cell phone towers, destroying ten in southern Afghanistan in the past month,
according to The Associated Press. The attacks on telecom towers have
prompted cell phone companies to shut down service across southern Afghanistan at
night, angering a quarter million customers who have no other telephones. Even
some Taliban fighters expressed regret about the disruptions and now are
demanding that service be restored by the companies.
Iraq: Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr today asked
Prime Minister al-Maliki, who is overseeing the Iraqi military's actions
against the Sadrist militia, to leave Basra
and to send a delegation to discuss the security situation, Agence
France-Presse reported. Sadr’s request appears to constitute his reply
to al Maliki’s ultimatum, earlier today, giving the Sadrist militiamen 72 hours
to stop fighting. Reports from international news services indicate little
changed over night except the number of dead in Basra reached 40 with 200 wounded, according
to a Reuters summary.
Yesterday in Karbala,
authorities imposed a curfew on vehicles and pedestrians. "Curfew was
imposed throughout Karbala
as of 9 pm until 6 am starting from today until further notice," Major
General Raed Shaker Jawdat told Aswat al-Iraq. "The curfew came
as part of security measures that envisage closing all inlets and preventing
visitors from entering the province," he explained.
Curfews already exist in five other southern provinces: Wassit, Babel, Diwaniya, Nassiriya as well as Basra, which has been placed under curfew
since Monday.
The fighting is evolving into the third Sadrist uprising.
One Sadrist commander boasted to Aswat al Iraq that the militia is
better organized, better trained, better led and has no problems with logistics
or finances. If the statement is more
than boasting, this fight has just begun.
Egypt: For
the record. The situation in the
Gaza Strip has effectively resulted in Egypt
having a border with Iran,
President Hosni Mubarak recently told a senior European diplomat, Haaretz
reported March 26, citing a source. According to the source, Mubarak also
compared the situation in Lebanon
to that in Gaza, blaming Iran's
"growing influence" for the crisis in both regions.
Extending the logic
of Mubarak’s statement,
Israel
is bordered by three Iranian proxies.
Somalia:
Islamist fighters seized control of Jowhar on Wednesday, the most
significant of several towns they have captured in recent months from the Western-backed
interim government based in Mogadishu. Seven civilians were killed in the attack.
Islamist and tribal fighters opposed to the interim
government usually cannot hold territory against the better organized and
equipped Ethiopian and African Union troops that support the interim
government. On the other hand the pro-government forces seem unable to prevent
new forays. The rebels are persistent and wear down the pro-government
coalition.
US-West Coast: US fighters escorted two Russian long-range
bombers patrolling neutral skies off Alaska
today, according to Interfax and Ria Novosti. A Russian
Defense Ministry spokesman said two Tu-95 "Bear" bombers flew for 15
hours over the Arctic and Pacific oceans,
accompanied by two Il-78 refueling tankers.
This seems like an unusually long patrol compared to the
Soviet era. NightWatch invites feedback on the
significance, if any, of “Bear” patrols of this duration.
Note: Food availability and prices are becoming
local drivers affecting social stability in 37 states, according to the FAO.
About 20 states have imposed various forms of rationing for varying periods of
time, including China. Food problems as a potential threat to
internal stability were featured in articles on North
Korea, Argentina
and Mauritania
today. Food is becoming politics in ways that have not been common or
widespread in the last 3 decades. Expect riots and governments to fall this
year because of the squeeze of food, crude and natural resources.
Thanks to a brilliant and perceptive reader for feedback on
this issue. As food issues evolve into political grievances, NightWatch will cover the phenomenology.
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