NightWatch
For the Night of 24
March 2008
China-Taiwan: President-elect Ma Ying-jeou said yesterday
that he is willing to "shelve the issue" of Taiwan's independence from China and
outlined plans to revolutionize cross-strait economic and security relations in
an interview published by the Washington Post. Ma, who won a resounding victory
in the 22 March election, said he ultimately wants a peace deal with China. He
predicted his stance on independence will allow Taiwan
and China
to come to terms on a variety of delicate issues.
Results from the referendum on UN membership also followed
the results of the presidential election. The Taiwan
electorate rejected UN membership both as Taiwan and as the Republic of
China.
Ma’s election and the rejection of UN membership are clean
sweep victories for China’s
crisis management team for Taiwan.
Long term patient subversion and persuasion based on increased economic and
social contacts undermined the appeal of the independence movement. For now,
the results repudiate Chen Shui-bian and Li Teng-hui his predecessor. Taiwan will not
be an inconvenient disruption to the Beijing Olympics. China, readers may be sure, will be
appropriately grateful to Taiwan
voters for those results.
The Chinese historically have viewed problems on the
frontiers as local manifestations of a single problem of resistance to Han
rule…and enlightenment. Central
problem-solving responses required tailoring to the local population but the
central principle for millennia is that people on the peripheries will resist
and revolt if given a chance.
The responses crafted after 1996 for dealing with Taiwan are a
dazzling success of long term planning and “imperial wisdom.” The responses for the Tibetan minority have
not yet worked, but appear to be working better and faster than when Hu Jintao
was the commissar for Tibet.
Taiwan is a mark in the win
column, while Tibet
is still pending. The central authority
in Beijing will be much more magnanimous to Taiwan than to
the Tibetans.
China-Tibetans: The BBC and other news services reported
the death of Chinese police officer in Tibetan disturbances today. The unrest has now entered its second week.
Pakistan: The
first order by Prime Minister Gillani was to release the judges detained under
emergency rule since last November. Deputy Islamabad commissioner Amir Ahmed told
the press "the order of the prime minister has been implemented and all
deposed judges are free to move." For the first time in four months,
Supreme Court Chief Justice Chaudhry appeared on a balcony of his home and
waved to hundreds of supporters.
The National Assembly elected Pakistani People's Party Gillani
as the country's prime minister by a vote of 264-42 today, amid chants of “Go,
Musharraf, go.” On 25 March, Musharraf will administer Gillani’s oath of
office.
In army affairs, Chief of Army Staff General Kayani ordered
a change of two army corps commanders and several other flag rank postings. The
1st Strike Corps at Mangla, in Punjab
received a new commander. This is one of two armored corps in the Pakistan
Army. Another change is the commander of
IV Corps, which is responsible for the defense of Lahore,
Punjab, Pakistan’s second city. Kayani also named a new Surgeon General,
replacing the officer assassinated by a suicide bomber in late February. With
the arrival of a civilian government, Kayani apparently judges he can
comfortably begin shaping the senior ranks as he prefers. These were routine appointments.
Iran:
Foreign Minister Mottaki said yesterday Iran
has applied to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security
group formed by China and Russia. "Tajikistan
has given us its support over this matter," Foreign Minister Mottaki said
after meeting with Tajikistan
President Rakhmon in Dushanbe.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was created 11
years ago to address religious extremism and border security in Central Asia. In response to interest in membership from other
countries, such as Iran,
it has grown into a bloc aimed at defying US interests in the region, according
to Today’s
Zaman. Iran currently has observer status in the
organization, as do Afghanistan,
India, Mongolia and Pakistan. Along with China and Russia,
the body's permanent members are the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
This is an Iranian move to sidestep western efforts to
isolate Iran
and to enforce sanctions. Full Iranian membership would represent an expansion
of the SCO in the direction of a rival to NATO, which President Putin has
sought with questionable success among members of the former Soviet
Union.
Iraq: Members of Muqtada al-Sadr’s militia moved
into Baghdad's southern al-Ilaam, Shurta, Bayaa and Amil districts and western
Washas district, ordering shop owners to close, Reuters reported, citing
witnesses. Militia members used burning tires to close roads in one
neighborhood. Witnesses said the
Shiite militiamen declared the beginning of a civil disobedience campaign,
protesting "U.S.
raids and the arrests of innocent people," a spokesman said. The campaign
does not mean the Shiite cease-fire is over, said al-Sadr's parliamentary bloc
leader Nassar al-Rubaie, adding that only al-Sadr can end the truce.
Western press has not yet addressed the slow but steady decline
in security that began in February. Casualties are increasing, clashes among
sectarian groups are increasing and political cooperation is declining. Iraq appears to
be heading into another period of violent instability, probably by summer if
the current pace persists.
Iraq-Russia: President Putin said yesterday, "Our
companies are ready to increase their contribution to the reconstruction and
modernization of Iraq's
economic infrastructure, primarily in the energy and oil and gas spheres, where
we have accumulated extensive experience," Putin said in a message to Iraq's prime
minister, which was released by the presidential press service.
The significance of this is that Russia
has not given up the possibility of recovering some return on its investments
in Iraq
when Saddam was in power. What is not clear is how the Sunnis and Shiites would
react to a resurgence of Russian vice Western presence or influence in Iraq.
Serbia-Kosovo: Serbia has proposed a plan for
dividing Kosovar Serbs and Albanians, the daily Politika reported March
22, quoting Serbian Minister for Kosovo Slobodan Samardzic. Samardzic said the
plan addressed all of Kosovo, and was part of the Serbian government's
rejection of Kosovo’s independence. He added that he submitted the proposal to
the U.N. body that administers Kosovo the week of 9 March.
Today’s announcement has been foreshadowed in Serbia’s treatment of the railroads and border
issues in connection with Mitrovica and other areas of Kosovo adjacent to Serbia. One
alternative is to persuade Serbs to consolidate in a single region of Kosovo. Serbia more
likely will try to carve out ethnic Serb enclaves so as to support its efforts
to dilute and refute Albanian claims to control the country.
Colombia-Ecuador: An Ecuadorian was among those killed in Colombia's 1 March attack against an
anti-Colombia rebel group that was using Ecuador as a safe haven, Colombian
Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos confirmed yesterday. The Ministry said the victim appears to have
been a member of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and that he
helped Marxist guerrillas cross into Ecuador.
Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa said last week that bilateral
relations would be downgraded if one of the victims of the Colombian operation
was a citizen of Ecuador.
He did not comment about Ecuador’s
reaction in the event the deceased was found to be a member of the FARC.
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