NightWatch

For the Night of 17 December 2007

 

Japan:  An interceptor missile fired from the Maritime Self Defense Force destroyer  JS Kongo destroyed a ballistic missile target in flight about 160km above the Pacific Ocean,  near Hawaii. said the US Missile Defense Agency, which carried out the test together with the Japanese and US navies. This is the first time Japanese forces have intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile.

The JS Kongo is the first of four Japanese destroyers due to be outfitted to counter missiles. The test target reportedly resembled the SCUD or the RODONG (NODONG) missile fielded by North Korea. This was the tenth intercept by the Aegis missile defense system, according to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance on Hawaii which witnessed the test. Japan paid $57 million to conduct the test with US assistance.

 

The implications of the test are far greater than the technical proficiency of an American ally. For the first time, a neighbor of North Korea has acquired the capability to neutralize North Korea’s missile threat before they reach the Japanese islands. Prior to this, only the US had that capability, but now it is resident in northeast Asia.

 
 


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JS Kongo (DDG-173)


After the Aegis equipment is fully operational on all four destroyers and PAC-3 Patriot missile defense systems are fully deployed, North Korean will be unable to hold Tokyo hostage to its ballistic missile threat. That means that the decades long program and huge North Korean investment in developing a missile threat so as to widen a future Korean war will become valueless over time.  Plus, if Japan has it, South Korea will not be far behind. This is tonight’s good news.

 

North Korea:  Agence France-Presse reported during this Watch that China's top envoy to the North Korean nuclear talks arrived in Pyongyang on 18 December. Vice foreign minister Wu Dawei was met by North Korean officials and representatives from the Chinese embassy, the Korean Central News Agency said in a brief note. It gave no further details but South Korea's Yonhap news agency said Wu would stay in the North until Thursday.

 

The Associated Press reported that technicians have begun removing fuel rods from the reactor at Yongbyon but the country will not meet the deadline for disabling its declared nuclear facilities, according to the report. The Associated Press also reported that the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister intends to discuss North Korea’s declaration of all its nuclear facilities, which also will not meet the 31 December deadline.

 

With South Korean elections a day off, the two communist states might be coordinating tactics for coping with a less cooperative, conservative South Korean government after 19 December. This is not shaping up as a good week for North Korea.

 

Pakistan:  Nine soldiers have been killed and four injured in a suicide bomb attack in the town of Kohat in North West Frontier Province (NWFP), a military spokesman confirmed today.

 

This attack is worth noting because Kohat has not been in the news for months. It is not part of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, but east, roughly due south of Swat. Unlike Swat, Kohat is a military garrison town. Like the Swat rebellion, attacks east of the tribal agencies means Islamist militarism is spilling out of the core areas along the border. Second, the militants are not intimidated by the Pakistan Army; are targeting it and are taking the time to scout its peacetime routines to inflict losses.

 

After the administration ended the standoff at the Red Mosque in July, Islamic and anti-government tribal militants vowed to attack the security forces. They continue to keep that promise, avoiding civilians and civilian government officials for the most part.

 

In an update on the escaped terrorist, Rashid Rauf, authorities confirmed that the man’s two police guards assisted his escape. They remain in custody.

 

Iran:  STRATFOR reported today a senior Iranian intelligence officer arrived in Lebanon during the week of 9 December, The purpose of the visit is not clear but his escort is said to be Imad Mughniyye, the Hezbollah official in charge of foreign operations. STRATFOR sources reported the two have held continuous talks with Hezbollah foreign operations officers in meetings attended by Hezbollah security chief Wafiq Safa, one of the top three Hezbollah leaders. They later traveled to the northern Biqaa Valley to meet Syrian intelligence officers led by Brigadier General Ali Diab in the Hezbollah training grounds near the border village of Janta.

 

No other sources have reported the visit or the itinerary. However, the activity is consistent with the reporting last week that Iran has asserted itself to provide more direct guidance to Hezbollah. The people are real and hold the posts mentioned, providing some basis for crediting the report, but there is insufficient evidence to draw conclusions about the implications of the contacts.

 

Iran-Turkey:  The Turkish-Iranian Frontier Commission has signed an agreement for the two countries to cooperate in fighting militants, specifically the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the Turkish Daily News reported today. The agreement also calls for cooperation in fighting drug traffickers and other criminals along the shared border.

 

Aside from the protests by the government in Baghdad, the European Union is the only other organization to complain about the Turkish air attacks over the weekend.

 

Iran has become the hub of the Middle East since the US released the NIE Key Judgments to the public. Today Russian announced its first delivery of nuclear fuel to the Bushehr nuclear power station, which is still under construction. Iran announced plans to build another nuclear power station.

 

Lebanon:  The presidential election in Lebanon has been postponed for a ninth time, until 22 December.  The government and the opposition agree in principle that army chief General Suleiman should stand for the vacant presidency, but they are stumbling over the allocation of positions and a demand by pro-Syrian parties for a restructuring of the government. 

 

Israel: Israeli aircraft killed at least five Islamic Jihad fighters in Gaza, including a senior commander and a leading rocket maker, prompting the group to threaten suicide bombings in revenge. "The assassination of the general commander will open the door wide to a wave of martyrdom operations," the group's al-Quds Brigades armed wing said.  Israel’s tactical intelligence remains impressive, but the rocket attacks continue. Killing the rocket makers is much more damaging to a terror group than killing its leader.

 

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