NightWatch
For the Night of 12 December 2007
Australia-US: An editorial in The Australian commented
on the US handling of the
NIE on Iran’s
nuclear intentions. The foreign editor’s observations are different from most
of the other commentaries. He did not disagree with the findings as such, but questioned
the logic that asserts Iran
has no nuclear weapons program, but could have a weapons capability by 2015.
He said basic journalism teaches that the lead item will get
the headlines, but the most important message in the NIE is that US intelligence
is only moderately confident about the state of the program in 2007. “In
generating headlines the opposite of its overall conclusions, the report was
either written with monumental incompetence, or, much more likely, with an
overtly political purpose,” according to the foreign editor.
His strongest criticism was the handling of the public
release. He wrote that the handling “humiliated” US allies dealing with Iran
and damaged the credibility of the US President, which is a vital factor in
global stability, like it or not. Russia
and China
“are dancing away, let off the hook of responsibility.”
The Australian is the only national general news daily in Australia, but
its circulation is limited. It is owned by Rupert Murdoch and tends to support
free trade, realism in foreign policy and “liberal conservatism.” Greg Sheridan
is the foreign editor and is considered “right wing” … and blunt.
North Korea-US: The international and US news services gave
prominent treatment to the coming trip to Pyongyang
by the New York Philharmonic Orchestra. Supposedly the US National Anthem will
be allowed to be played, probably for the first time before a public audience
in North Korea.
The US Secretary of State
said she was pleased that the Orchestra would play, but insisted
denuclearization was the priority and that North
Korea was "not a regime the United States
is prepared to engage broadly.”
The Secretary’s statement is odd because routinely the US government or private American enterprises
engage North Korea
in over a dozen separate venues on all kinds of topics all the time. US allies
acting as proxies are engaged even more extensively … old fashioned wisdom
about keeping your enemies closer. The timing of the statement would not seem
to promote an exuberant welcome for the Orchestra, but the North can be as
remarkably hospitable, as it can be hostile.
India-Pakistan: The Deputy
Director General, Pakistan Rangers, Punjab, Brigadier Qaisar Khan Tareen, and
Indian Border Security Force, Deputy Inspector General Shirri G. S. Virk met for
their quarterly meeting today, part of the routine measures for coordinating
border security along the international border. A separate set of measures
applies to the Line of Control in Kashmir.
Prior to the meeting, Pakistani Brigadier Tareen told journalists that both
sides would discuss issues relating to inadvertent border crossers and illegal
entrants, incidents of trans-border smuggling through the Indian fence and into
Pakistan, simultaneous coordinated patrolling along the international border,
and repatriation of Pakistani prisoners detained in Indian jails.
The Pakistani
border forces are militarized paramilitary forces, with military ranks.
Pakistan Rangers historically are the key enforcers of martial law and the
present emergency. The Indians are
policemen, with paramilitary backup units, but still police. They share the
British colonial tradition, but evolved distinctly different approaches to law
and order.
Pakistan: The alliance of Islamic political parties,
the MMA, has been suspended, its president announced today because the two
largest coalition partners disagreed about boycotting the general election in
January. . The News analyst suggested “the collapse of the alliance could
prove a blow to President Pervez Musharraf - who has been supported by the
religious bloc in the past.”
The vote by
Islamist bloc has been critical to all the electoral victories of musharraf and
his supporters in the past nine years. A split, with a major party boycotting
the election, could mean musharraf’s PML-Q party and its partners might not win
a majority in parliament. Musharraf has always counted on and gotten the
Islamist vote, which explains why two of the four provinces had Islamist-led
provincial governments and the Islamist bloc formed the swing vote in the
National Assembly after the 2002 elections.
Afghanistan: The
BBC reported today a story
about Afghan women who have been holding meetings to call for peace. Organizers say that at least 1,000
women turned out to hold prayer meetings in six provinces – all in the Pashtun
tribal area -- and share their experiences. The main event - called the Women's
National Peace Prayer - was held in the southern provinces of Kandahar
and Helmand, two of the most dangerous in the
past three months.
The BBC story ran a photo of women activists wearing burqas
in public to make the point that the women are tired of the killing and caring
for the wounded. One of the factors in a permanent systemic solution to
terrorism is for the human support system and the caregivers to withhold care
because of war weariness. Denial of support has been a critical component in
the collapse of the secessionist insurgency in Indian Kashmir. Prior to the US intervention in Afghanistan in 2001, this would
have been impossible under the Taliban regime. This is tonight’s good news.
Iran:
Former President Mohammed Khatami attacked the policies of President Ahmadi-nejad
yesterday in a speech to some 1,000 students at Tehran University.
Khatami said political suppression, questionable economic policies and defiance
on the nuclear issue are leading Iranians in the wrong direction. He also
denounced Ahmadi-nejad's political and social crackdown on activists and
criticized his plans for strengthening the economy.
Khatami’s derisive remarks might seem ill timed in light of
the new US NIE, but they are a reminder that Ahmadi-nejad is unpopular in Iran for many shortcomings
and unfulfilled promises. Khatami’s is the third major public criticism in a
month. These suggest high level leaders are considering policy
adjustments.
As yet none of the critics have been permitted to elaborate
their alternatives to current policies in public, but that is probably taking
place outside public scrutiny. The pace
is glacial, but a limited number of more experienced, worldly-wise and tolerant
leaders are speaking out in public without getting arrested. That looks to be
the start of a significant change.
Saudi Arabia-Iran: Saudi King Abdullah has invited Iranian
President Ahmadi-nejad to Mecca
to attend the Hajj, according to the Iranian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Mohammed Hosseini speaking on Iranian state television today. The news agency IRNA
reported that this is the first time an Iranian president has been officially
invited to the Hajj.
The Saudis are the latest to engage Iran to prevent
further regional destabilization in the aftermath of the US NIE.
Lebanon: Lebanese security sources said 35kg of
explosives packed into an olive-green BMW car were detonated by remote control
at about 7am (05:00 GMT), killing Brigadier General Francois al-Hajj
and his bodyguards in what was thought to be a safe, Christian neighborhood. The Red Cross said 8 bystanders were slightly
injured. No group has claimed responsibility for the assassination and the
Syrians quickly denied involvement.
Hajj, a Maronite Christian, was the Operations Chief of the
Lebanese Army and considered the likely successor to Army Commander General
Michel Suleiman, were he elected President. Hajj directed the lengthy, methodical
destruction of the Palestinian refugee city/camp in northern Lebanon earlier
this year and was publicly acclaimed for his success in stamping out the
extremists.
Hajj’s death will leave the Army without experienced
leadership if Suleiman becomes President and that might have been one of many
motives behind the attack. Many analysts have assessed that the greatest danger
in the stalemate over electing a new President is the chance of renewed
violence among the political factions. Attacks
like today’s slowly erode the consensus against civil strife.
As for who benefits, Syria
and its proxies including Hezbollah would seem to benefit from the threat of
civil war because Syria
is the only neighbor in a position to intervene to stop it and Hezbollah’s
militia is about as strong as the Lebanese Army.
A return to civil disorder would act as an invitation for
outside meddling on the grounds that the Lebanese political system with its
complex mix of confessional groups is not workable. Actually it does work when
outside interests restrain themselves, including the Syrians, Iranians,
Israelis and even the French.
Robert Frisk of The Independent noted that several
prominent political leaders who are critics of Syria did not indulge in
Syria-bashing as they are accustomed today. He concluded that political
alliances are shifting again, in favor of Syria. His item is a warning.
Russia: Moscow's
participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty was suspended
from midnight in Moscow on
12 December (2100 GMT), the Russian foreign ministry said. The ministry said Moscow now has the right to station troops anywhere in Russia without
restriction, but has no immediate intention to reinforce the border with NATO.
Ukraine: Members of acting Ukrainian Prime Minister
Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions physically blocked the entrance to
parliament today and succeeded in preventing a second vote for Yulia
Timoshenko's prime ministerial nomination.
Yesterday, Timoshenko lost by a single vote. Timoshenko's political party and President
Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party disputed the result, saying the Party of
Regions abused the electronic voting system.
Lawmakers agreed to vote on the issue again today using
traditional ballots or a show of hands, but the pro-Russian Party of Regions
prevented lawmakers from entering the building.
France: Le Nouvel Observateur magazine published today an
interview with President Sarkozy in which he said "if the Israelis consider
their security is truly threatened," there will be a danger of war
breaking out over Iran's
nuclear program. "The
problem for us is not so much the risk that the Americans launch a military
intervention, but that the Israelis consider their security to be truly
threatened," Sarkozy explained.
Sarkozy said in the interview that a new UN resolution
increasing sanctions on Iran
remains justified because of its past evasions. He said if Iran increased its cooperation with the
International Atomic Energy Agency he would be willing to travel to Iran to discuss
a civilian nuclear partnership.
France-Libya:
Muammar Qadhafi is exacting a large political price from President
Sarkozy for the new contracts he signed. In separate venues, Qadhafi publicly
contradicted Sarkozy on issues of human rights. French politicians refuse to
meet him and have criticized Sarkozy for inviting him. Qadhafi criticized the French, for example,
for not giving rights protection to its Islamic immigrants. As usual, Qadhafi is a difficult guest.
Bolivia: The governors of five rebel departments are set for
confrontation with the government of President Morales over the handling of the
draft constitution which was finalized on 9 December. The governors announced
today plans unilaterally to declare autonomy this weekend. No date has been
announced for a public referendum on the draft constitution.
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