NightWatch

For the Night of 10 December 2007

 

North-South Korea:  On 11 December, a 12-car train carrying construction materials crossed the Demilitarized Zone en route the North Korean border city of Kaesong, where the two Koreas operate a joint industrial zone. It returned during this Watch. The freight train will make the 10-mile round trip every weekday to North Korea. This round trip started the first regular rail service between the Koreas since 1950.

China:  The daily publication of the Chinese Central Military Commission JieFang JunBao published a signed editorial concerning the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear intentions.  The editorial is entitled, “Self-Preservation Mentality, or Hint for Future Actions."

 

Most of the editorial is a summary of the themes of recent US NIEs on Iran that have been released to the public. The treatment emphasizes the strategic political significance of the Key Judgments on any decision to attack Iran, similar to most western press treatments. 

 

The final paragraph is the only place to repeat the refrain of the title. The authors recognize that the judgment that Iran has no nuclear weapons program allows the US President to back away from strong language in October about the need to handle the Iranian nuclear program.

 

On the other hand, the authors also see in other key judgments the justification for future attacks. The message is that the Chinese military leadership is not sure what to think but is not confident that the judgments of the NIE make US military action against Iran less likely than before the NIE was published.

 

Pakistan: The Mehsud tribe in the South Waziristan Agency in North West Frontier Province announced today the collapse of their agreement with the government.  The Mehsud leaders said they would not support the government or be responsible for militant activities in the agency till the government released seven local Taliban still in custody, the Daily Times reported.


The announcement was made by representatives of the Mehsud tribe at a jirga. A senior jirga member told Daily Times that the government had released 25 local Taliban of the total 32, which they called a violation of the cooperation pact between the government and Mehsud tribes. On 4 November, the day after the emergency was declared, the Mehsuds released the 200 soldiers they had been holding captive since 30 August.

 

The jirga announced a boycott of the election in the agency, not just the national election, and banned attending the political administration’s offices until the government accepts their demands. Militant commander Baitullah Mehsud asked candidates to withdraw their nomination papers for the National Assembly seat from South Waziristan and warned them of serious consequences if they contested the election.

 

The government has provided no explanation for holding the seven fighters in custody. It will almost certainly capitulate rather than stoke a new round of tribal rebellion just as it is preparing to lift the emergency.


Dawn reported, “Under a new ordinance enacted by Pervez Musharraf, television journalists face up to three years in jail for broadcasting ‘anything which defames or brings into ridicule the head of state.’ “The TV news on all stations was subject to strict censorship prior to this limited grant of press freedom. Curious that Dawn neglected to print any title for the head of state.

 

Some restrictions on the content of printed newspapers have been lifted, but the print papers are policing themselves to avoid being closed down by the government. The Internet news posting continue to carry items critical of the internal political situation and statements by opposition politicians critical of musharraf, such as Nawaz Sharif’s call to government bureaucrats to disobey the government.  The Internet news services in Pakistan, however, do not run editorials on the political situation. 

 

 

Iran:  Deputy Oil Minister Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh told reporters today that Iran plans to end its gasoline-rationing program by March 2009.  This is to be accomplished by expanding domestic refining capacity and by encouraging Iranians to use natural-gas-powered vehicles in order to make the shift possible, Nematzadeh said.

This seems completely unrealistic. Egypt is one of the ten largest users of natural gas-powered vehicles. It has 63,000 vehicles and 95 fueling stations nationwide.

 

Lebanon:  The presidential election will be delayed for the 8th time until 17 December because rival groups are still debating over ways to amend the constitution to allow the army chief to be elected as the new president, according to Reuters today.  Al Hayat’s editorial on the delay explained that pro-Syrian parties and Hezbollah deliberately are prolonging the stalemate in order to make any new president indebted to them for his election and any new government paralyzed unless it courts the support of the pro-Syrian and Hezbollah interests.  

 

Israel-US: US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen received briefings on Iran’s nuclear weapons program from Israeli experts, according to the New York Times.  In meetings today, Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, and Israeli intelligence officials, informed Admiral Mullen and his staff that Israel estimates Iran could produce a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009 at the earliest or, more likely, sometime in 2010-1 unless it is stopped.

 

According to the Times report, Israeli intelligence estimates say Iran stopped all its nuclear weapons activities for a time in 2003, nervous after the American invasion of Iraq, but then resumed those activities in 2005, accelerating enrichment and ballistic missile development and constructing a 40-megawatt heavy-water reactor in Arak that could produce plutonium. The Israelis believe Iran continues to work on all phases of building a nuclear weapon despite international pressure and technical problems.

 

Comment:  This is the first mention of Iran’s plutonium program recently in the press. The enriched uranium program is at Natanz.  North Korea, Iran’s missile supplier, has a long standing plutonium program. If the North has workable nuclear warheads, they are almost certainly use plutonium as their fissile material.

 

Libya-France: Muammar Qadhafi arrived in France, pitched his big heated Bedouin tent and received visitors.

He and French President Sarkozy signed a number of business agreements, making France the first western country to receive Qadhafi in the past four years since Qadhafi ended Libya’s confrontation with the West and directed restoration of normal economic and diplomatic relations.

 

Libya purchased 21 Airbus aircraft and the two men signed a co-operation accord to develop the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the supply of one "or several" nuclear reactors to desalinate sea water, Mr Sarkozy's office said in a statement. Finally, the two leaders signed a memorandum of military co-operation, in which Libya promised to negotiate exclusively with France for all future military purchases. No more details were given.

 

Their total value was not made public but earlier President Sarkozy said they would be worth 10bn euros (£7.2bn). (The BBC has taken to not converting figures to US dollars of late.) The agreements are great for France because Qadhafi has lots to spend owing to high oil prices. Qadhafi gets a nuclear program after all with the blessings and support of France. France becomes a partner in Qadhafi’s undiminished aspirations to be a regional leader. Apparently that includes a rebuild of the armed forces, a likely windfall for French arms firms.

 

The big loser would seem to be Italy which has quietly held a strong position in trade and in many of Libya’s modernization schemes. On the other hand, Libya has enough wealth to entice multiple partners, including China which is investing in energy.

 

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