NightWatch
For the Night of 4 December 2007
North Korea-Six Party Talks: Japanese Foreign Minister Komura told
reporters today that a session of six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program is
facing "a difficult situation," Kyodo News reported. South Korea, China,
Japan
and others initially hoped the talks would begin 6 December, but they have been
postponed. Komura did not elaborate on what the difficult situation is but said
he was told "coordination is still under way."
The reasons for postponement are potentially infinite. Two recently
reported issues that could cause postponement include new US conditions
for North Korean compliance and focus on North-South talks for implementing the
rail service. If the North remains committed to its undertakings, the
postponement will be brief and administrative. US Ambassador Hill is in North Korea,
which is a good sign that the delay is technical and not substantive.
Thailand: King Rama IX of the Chakri dynasty, King
Bhumiphol Adulyadej is 80 years old on 5 December. His 61-year reign makes him
the longest reigning Thai King and the longest reigning monarch in the
world. It is a national holiday. Happy Birthday.
Burma: The military junta granted amnesty to more
than 8,500 people to celebrate progress on the country's constitution and to
show cooperation with the United Nations and international community, The
Associated Press reported citing state media. On 3 December a
constitution-drafting committee began working on a new charter, using guidelines
from a national convention that began in 1993 but only ended in August. After
14 years of talks, the 54-member panel has now begun work on the new
constitution, the third stage of what the military government calls its
"seven stage path to democracy".
The junta has not had an epiphany about the merits of
elections or the electorate. As in Pakistan, the Burmese military
considers itself the sovereign. The releases manifest an almost timeless
practice of dictatorships and kings to show compassion on occasion, with
gestures to weaken the internal opposition.
Pakistan: A female suicide bomber detonated as she
walked near a school and a military checkpoint in Peshawar. The bomber was the only casualty, according
to a police spokesman. The international press has reported this to be the
first suicide bombing by a woman, but the BBC reported the first occurred on 6
November 2000.
In another incident, tribal militants kidnapped six
Pakistani policemen in Bajaur agency. The emergency still has not improved the
security situation.
As conditions for their participation in parliamentary
elections, the major opposition parties are preparing to demand the end of
emergency rule and the release of former Supreme Court judges, The Associated
Press reported. After yesterday’s meetings, representatives of Nawaz Sharif's
and Benazir Bhutto's parties set up a joint committee to draw up the list of
demands and set a deadline for compliance.
The political opposition has no leverage over the emergency
regime and no ideas for capturing the support of the electorate. The military
remains the dispenser of all rights and permissions in Pakistan. It is
the ultimate source of sovereignty … at least until the Islamists get strong
enough to take power overtly.
Afghanistan: At least 13 people have been killed by a
suicide car bomb attack in Kabul,
the defense ministry said today. The bomber attacked a bus carrying Afghan
soldiers during morning rush hour in the south-west of Kabul. Six soldiers and seven civilians were
killed and a dozen other people were injured. The blast comes one day after a
similar attack on a NATO convoy close to Kabul
airport injured 22 Afghans.
The bombing is the third suicide attack in the city in the
last four days. The timing indicates the attacks were intended to embarrass the
regime during the Gates visit. This seems to be a South Asian custom. Some kind
of sensational atrocity occurs whenever high-level US
delegations visit India, Pakistan or Afghanistan.
Iraq: Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr overnight
blasted US President Bush and the al Maliki government for signing a deal with Baghdad that ensures a long-term American military
presence in Iraq.
"I say this to the evil Bush - leave my country," Sadr said in the
Shiite holy city of Najaf.
"We do not need you and your army of darkness….We don't need your planes
and tanks. We don't need your policy and your interference. We don't want your
democracy and fake freedom. Get out of our land." Sadr also criticized the
other top Shiite parties including al-Maliki's Dawa and the Supreme Iraqi
Islamic Council (SIIC) of Hakim.
President Bush and Prime Minister al-Maliki decided to end
the UN mandate for foreign troops' presence in Iraq in 2008 and replace it with a
bilateral pact between the two countries for an American military presence
beyond 2008.
This is the first blast by Sadr since he reconciled with al-Maliki
in late summer. If Sami Moubayed
at Asia Times online is correct in his hypothesis, the working arrangement of
Shiites and Sunnis supporting al-Maliki will fracture over this pact. He has
already been proven correct regarding the position he predicted Sadr would
adopt.
This means that not only Sadr will return to opposition, but
the Anbar Awakening Council and the Sunni Arab Iraqi Accordance Front also will
refuse to cooperate with the al Maliki government because it sold out Iraqi
sovereignty. Sami predicts the Sunni Arabs also will
turn on the United States
and refuse to fight al Qaida. His argument is logically sound and
evidence-based, which makes this a NightWatch warning.
Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said today
that the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's
nuclear activities shows that tighter sanctions are needed to make sure Iran
never acquires nuclear weapons, Haaretz reported. Olmert said Israel will continue working toward this goal
along with the United States.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that Iran likely
restarted its nuclear weapons program, contradicting the U.S. National
Intelligence Estimate. "It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain
period of time its military nuclear program, but as far as we know it has
probably since revived it," Barak told Army Radio. During their
visit to Annapolis
last week, Barak, Olmert and Foreign Minister Livni received an advance briefing
on the NIE, Haaretz reported.
Comment: Iran
purchased from North Korea
in late 2005, according to Agence France-Presse, 18 North Korean-modified
Soviet-designed SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile. The North Koreans
modified the missile for launch from a mobile, land-based launcher and named
their modification the BM 25.
Iran has
lots of missiles, including others provided by North Korea. The BM 25 is special
because it was designed by the Soviets to carry 1 megaton nuclear warheads and
it has been tested successfully in over 500 launches between 1968 and 1988. It theoretically can carry other warheads, but
fas.org only lists a nuclear
payload. It was the main weapons system in the Soviet Yankee-class ballistic
missile submarines. It always was primarily a nuclear warhead carrier and Iran
has 18 of them.
The possession of a nuclear-capable missile is not evidence
that a country has a nuclear warhead for that missile. It is evidence of a
general intent by the leadership, not a specific intent, to possess an
option for developing a nuclear attack capability. This is irreducible simply
from the fact that Iran
bought enough ballistic missiles to equip a launch battalion and that missile is
optimized to delivery nuclear payloads. Serious general intent.
Nations, like people, are presumed to intend to do what they
do. Iran
purchased a nuclear-capable missile delivery system. Curious minds would like to know
why would Iran buy such a
system from North Korea
in 2005, if it abandoned the nuclear warhead program in 2003? This
discrepancy seems to add weight to Ehud Barak’s contention that Iran restarted
the program after a hiatus of unknown duration.
Chad:
The BBC reported a major battle has
taken place in eastern Chad,
with continuing “heavy” fighting, a rebel group says. The Rally of Forces for
Change (RFC) says government forces attacked them at dawn 150km north of the
town of Abeche.
No casualty figures were given. The latest clashes come 24 hours after the
rebels seized a number of army officers and vehicles. President Idriss Deby is
reportedly on the ground in eastern Chad commanding his troops.
The Chadian government is not in jeopardy, even if something
unfortunate happens to Deby. The French are very much in control, providing air
support to the Chadians. News sources
have not reported how the RFC obtained logistic support to rebuild its
capabilities after having been beaten by French and Chadian forces earlier this
year. More on this later if this indicates a renewal of Sudanese meddling in
the border region near Abeche.
Venezuela: President Chavez, speaking to state TV, said
it was possible that Venezuela
was not yet mature enough for socialism. Venezuelans voted 51% to 49% against
the proposals, which included ending presidential term limits.
From Lenin to Sukarno to Chavez, demagogues always blame
their failure to subvert electorates on the immaturity of the electorate.
Blaming is a form of addiction, according to most researchers.
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